农产品月度策略跟踪（第3期）-20250417

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides strategies for different agricultural product sectors, including unilateral and arbitrage strategies, and analyzes the market conditions and trends of various agricultural products such as oils, corn, and livestock [1][19][21]. - It also ranks the strength of different agricultural product varieties in the short - medium and long - term and gives corresponding long - short allocation suggestions [3][48]. - The trade war between China and the US has an impact on the agricultural product market, affecting the supply, demand, and price of products such as beans, cotton, and livestock [48][59]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上期策略回顾 - 豆粕菜粕: The recommended "M - RM 09 narrowing" and "RM 5 - 9 reverse spread" strategies performed poorly. The M - RM 09 spread widened from 201 on March 18 to 393 on April 15, and the RM 5 - 9 spread widened from - 128 to - 89 [11]. - 白糖: The suggestion to short Zhengzhou sugar at high prices did not work well. The domestic market was stronger than expected, and the 5 - month contract triggered the stop - loss level [12]. - 生猪: The strategy of shorting the LH5 contract after over - rising provided good profit - taking opportunities, and the focus has now shifted to the 09 contract [12]. - 玉米: The recommendation of buying the corn 07 contract at low prices did not see the second upward repair. The contract oscillated around 2300 yuan/ton due to traders' lack of confidence [13]. - 油脂: The shorting opportunity of P2509 gave good profit - taking points, and the P59 positive spread and YP09 widening strategies did not show a strong trend [14]. - Strength - weakness allocation strategy: The previous long - short allocation strategy showed a 2.6% loss, but the approaching delivery of the 5 - month contract affected the strategy performance tracking [15]. 3.2本期策略推荐 3.2.1单边策略 - 棕榈油: Bearish in 1 - 2 months. Suggest shorting the 9 - month contract (P2509) with a target profit of 7500 yuan and a stop - loss of 8300 yuan [19]. - 豆油: Bullish over 3 months. Recommend going long on the 1 - month contract (Y2601) with a first target profit of 8000 yuan and a stop - loss of 7400 yuan [19]. - 玉米: Bullish in 1 - 3 months. Pay attention to the 07 contract's long - buying opportunity at low prices, with a target profit of 2450 - 2500 yuan and a stop - loss of 2250 - 2270 yuan [19]. - 生猪: Bearish in 1 - 2 months. Look for shorting opportunities in the 9 - month contract after over - rising, with a target profit of 14100 - 14200 yuan and a stop - loss of 14800 - 14900 yuan [20]. 3.2.2套利策略 - Y2509 - Y2601: Recommend a reverse spread strategy based on the expectation of more soybean arrivals in the near - term and fewer in the long - term. The risk includes lower - than - expected soybean arrivals in the third quarter and changes in US bio - fuel policies [21]. 3.2.3推荐策略逻辑详述及相关指标跟踪 - 油脂板块: Short - term shorting opportunities for P2509 and long - term long - buying opportunities for Y2601. The key indicators include the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory and the high POGO spread [22][25][31]. - 玉米板块: Continue to recommend long - buying the corn 07 contract at low prices. Pay attention to Northeast inventory changes, North China drought, and wheat storage rumors. Key indicators include the corn inventory - consumption ratio of deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises' corn inventory days [32][33]. - 养殖板块: Look for shorting opportunities in the LH 7 and 9 contracts after over - rising. The current inventory situation continues to drive the near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the end of the second quarter is an important release point for inventory [37][39]. 3.3农产品品种间强弱排序 3.3.1农产品各主要品种观点 - 豆粕 (M): In the short - term, the price increase is limited. In the long - term, if the import of US soybeans is excluded or the US yield is lower than expected, the price may rise [48]. - 菜粕 (RM): Unilateral follow - up with bean粕. Focus on policy changes, especially the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed imports [48]. - 棕榈油 (P): In the short - term, the price is supported by replenishment, but in the long - term, it is affected by the low demand for Indonesian biodiesel [48]. - 豆油 (Y): In the near - term, the price is under pressure, but in the long - term, it is bullish due to potential supply shortages [48]. - 菜油 (OI): Expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend due to the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed and the drought in European rapeseed production areas [48]. - Corn (C, CS): In the short - term, look for catalysts; in the long - term, if there is no large - scale substitution, the gap will be exposed in mid - to - late July [48]. - Eggs (JD): In the second quarter, the price is under pressure due to increased supply and reduced inventory demand. In the third quarter, the supply and demand situation needs further evaluation [49]. - Pigs (LH): In the long - term, the price is expected to be weak in the first half of 2025 and stronger in the second half, with a possible price turning point at the end of the year [49]. - Sugar (SR): In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile and bearish; in the long - term, it is expected to be in a bear market, but affected by weather conditions [50]. - Cotton (CF): In the second quarter, the market is not optimistic; in the second half of the year, it is cautiously bullish, but the market volatility is high [50]. 3.3.2主要指标跟踪 - 资金面动态: From March 14 to April 14, 2025, the agricultural product futures sector had a net capital outflow. Beans, corn, and other varieties had the highest capital inflows, while oils and rubber had significant outflows [51]. - 各品种基差及基差率 (2025年4月14日): The report provides the basis and basis rate data for various agricultural product varieties [54]. - 农产品期货强弱排序及多空配置策略: Short - medium - term: Long bean粕, rapeseed oil, and corn; short palm oil and pigs. Long - term: Look for opportunities to long bean粕 at low prices and short sugar and palm oil at high prices [66].