Huaxin Securities·2025-04-18 01:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% compared to the market index [10]. Core Insights - The March retail sales data exceeded expectations, with a total of 40,940 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, driven by the effects of the "old-for-new" policy [5]. - The restaurant sector showed strong resilience, with March dining revenue reaching 4,235 billion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, supported by policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [6]. - The report highlights specific investment opportunities in various segments, including high-performance liquor brands and efficient dairy producers, as well as emerging snack and beverage companies [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage sector has shown mixed performance over different time frames, with a decline of 2.9% over the last month and a 5.7% increase over the last three months, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 5.6% in the last month but increased by 5.8% over the last year [1]. Retail Sales Data - In the first quarter of 2025, the total retail sales amounted to 124,671 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The significant growth in retail sales of optional consumer goods, such as home appliances and furniture, was noted, with increases of 35.1%, 29.5%, and 28.6% respectively [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends specific companies within the liquor sector, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Shede Liquor, which are expected to show high performance due to low base effects [7]. - In the dairy sector, companies like Modern Farming and Youran Dairy are highlighted for their cost efficiency and production advantages [7]. - The snack food segment is also seen as having growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Wancheng Group and Youyou Foods, which are expected to benefit from channel expansions and new product categories [7].