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白糖:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-04-18 01:42

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is "Range-bound" [1] Core Viewpoints - The sugar market shows a range-bound trend. In the international market, factors such as the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, market trading of recession expectations, low inventory in Brazil, lower-than-expected production in India, and reduced exports from Brazil and China have an impact on the market. In the domestic market, there are differences between production, consumption, and imports, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in shortfall [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The raw sugar price is 17.81 cents per pound, with a year-on-year increase of 0.09 cents; the mainstream spot price is 6,150 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan year-on-year; the futures main contract price is 5,936 yuan per ton, up 52 yuan year-on-year. The 59 spread is 172 yuan per ton, down 7 yuan year-on-year; the 15 spread is 104 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan year-on-year; the mainstream spot basis is 214 yuan per ton, down 32 yuan year-on-year [1] Macro and Industry News - High-frequency information indicates that the US imposing reciprocal tariffs, market trading of recession expectations have put pressure on raw sugar. In Brazil, with low inventory, India's production is lower than expected, and precipitation in the Brazilian production area in Q1 is low. The NFCSF has lowered India's sugar production forecast for the 24/25 season from 26.5 million tons to 25.9 million tons. Brazil exported 1.85 million tons in March, a year-on-year decrease of 30.7%. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to February have significantly declined [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects domestic sugar production of 11 million tons, consumption of 15.8 million tons, and imports of 5 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of the end of March, the national sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.75 million tons (+1.17 million tons), cumulative sugar sales were 6 million tons (+1.26 million tons), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.8%. China imported 80,000 tons of sugar from January to February (-1.11 million tons) [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously a shortage of 2.51 million tons). As of March 31, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central-southern region of Brazil in the 24/25 season decreased by 4.98 percentage points year-on-year, with cumulative sugar production of 40.17 million tons (-2.25 million tons), and the cumulative MIX decreased by 0.82 percentage points year-on-year. As of March 31, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 24.85 million tons (-5.4 million tons). As of April 1, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.04 million tons (+1.3 million tons) [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]