长江期货黑色产业日报-20250418

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term steel market fluctuates around tariff policies. Although the current steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the direct and indirect exports of steel will be affected by tariff policies. It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is affected by the escalation of tariff friction, with the contradiction between high iron - water production and low finished - product demand continuing to accumulate. It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. - The coking coal price may maintain a weak and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the profit repair rhythm of downstream steel enterprises, the recovery strength of terminal demand, and changes in import coal customs clearance policies [3]. - The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline in iron - water production and the impact of the realization of terminal steel demand on the price rebound height [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Steel - Price and Basis: On Thursday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 05 contract was 138 (+11) [1]. - Demand and Export: The current steel apparent demand data is good, and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. However, the indirect exports were about 140 million tons last year, with over 10 million tons exported to the US, and some re - exports were also affected [1]. - Strategy: It is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Price and Basis: On Thursday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated narrowly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 762 yuan/wet ton (-2). The Platts 62% index was 99.9 US dollars/ton (+0.95), and the monthly average was 99.84 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 100 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - Supply and Demand: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.349 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 417,000 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 234.1815 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2198 million tons. The daily output of molten iron of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons. With the peak of building material demand and the slowdown of plate demand growth due to tariffs, iron ore is expected to enter a stage of increasing supply and falling demand [1]. - Strategy: It is expected to rebound slightly or remain volatile in the near term, and the 09 contract should be considered from the perspective of shorting on rebounds [1]. 3.3 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in the main domestic production areas are restricted by safety inspections, and the overall capacity release rhythm is slow. The Mongolian port clearance volume fluctuates and declines, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious [3]. - Demand: The coke enterprise start - up rate has rebounded, but it mainly consumes the previous inventory. Steel mills maintain a rigid procurement rhythm, and the market trading atmosphere is cold [3]. - Policy: Macroeconomic policies continue to suppress the black - series industry chain, and the long - term export demand is expected to weaken [3]. 3.4 Coke - Supply: After the first price increase, the loss pressure of coke enterprises has been alleviated, and the production rhythm has become stable [4]. - Demand: The high molten - iron production of steel mills supports rigid demand, but some steel mills start to control the arrival rhythm due to the uncertainty of terminal demand [4]. - Policy: The long - term export expectation is weakened by the intensification of foreign trade frictions, which suppresses market confidence [4]. 3.5 Industry News - Production Data: In March, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.298 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.6%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 3.159 million, a year - on - year increase of 45.4%. The production of air conditioners in March was 33.712 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 74.458 million, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. The production of washing machines in March was 11.002 million, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; from January to March, the cumulative production was 29.564 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% [6]. - Housing Policy: Qingdao plans to acquire more than 1,200 second - hand personal housing units for affordable rental housing and long - term rental housing [6]. - Business Policy: Shanghai encourages private enterprises to carry out mergers and acquisitions for industrial upgrading and supports private listed companies in market - value management [6]. - Corporate Investment: Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. plans to invest 9 billion yuan to acquire a 35.42% stake in Magang Co., Ltd. and increase capital, with the shareholding ratio reaching 49% after the transaction [6]. - Trade Negotiation: China's Ministry of Commerce maintains communication with the US and is open to trade consultations [6].