工业硅、多晶硅日评：重心下移-20250418

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is under high inventory pressure with no obvious improvement in demand, and the silicon price is expected to remain low in the short term. For industrial silicon, the supply has limited overall changes with a south - increase and north - decrease pattern, while demand from downstream industries is weak. For polysilicon, there is a multi - empty game with the 06 contract having some driving factors but a weakening demand expectation in May [1]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) decreased by 0.51% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and 421 (East China) decreased by 0.47% to 10,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped by 0.06% to 9,015 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: In Xinjiang, the number of open furnaces decreased; in Sichuan, there were new open furnaces. In April, some silicon enterprises in Yunnan are expected to have new capacity put into production. Overall, the supply of industrial silicon has a south - increase and north - decrease pattern with limited overall changes [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Domestic monomer enterprises in production are expected to further reduce the operating rate to below 70% in April. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. - Investment Strategy: The silicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price is expected to be in the range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton in the short term. Considering the extremely low price, it may force silicon enterprises to cut production, and the risk of short - selling is high. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: N - type dense material decreased by 1.25% to 39.5 yuan/kg, while polysilicon re - feedstock, dense material, and cauliflower material prices remained flat. The futures main contract closing price dropped by 2.05% to 39,440 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and the output in April is expected to remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: As the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled, but the demand for centralized orders has increased. The battery production schedule has been raised to 63 - 64GW, with sufficient supply and a decline in the transaction price. The silicon wafer production schedule in April may be lower than expected, and the upside space is limited after the demand peak in the middle and late April and May [1]. - Investment Strategy: The limited quantity and high cost of the 06 contract delivery products drive the long - matching idea, but the weakening demand expectation in May drags down the price. Under the multi - empty game, the polysilicon futures market has oscillated and declined. Consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread in the inter - period strategy. Continuously monitor the production willingness of polysilicon factories after the price decline [1]. Other Information - 97 Silicon: In March, the output of 97 silicon was about 15,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 26%. In April, the output is expected to further decline due to production transfer or reduction by some manufacturers. The operating rate has been continuously weakening because of the low - price of some 99 silicon products and cost inversion [1]. - Photovoltaic Glass: This week, the domestic photovoltaic glass transaction price has slightly decreased. With the weakening of component demand and the decline in component prices, the high - price of glass in the market is under great pressure, and some enterprises have slightly lowered their quotes [1].