宝城期货动力煤早报-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The coal price is expected to remain at a low level in the near future as the upward driving force is limited and the upstream and downstream are in a stalemate after continuous price drops [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are "oscillation", with supply - side pressure remaining and the coal price weakly stable. The time - period definitions are: short - term within one week, medium - term from two weeks to one month [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - Likely factors: Since April, the daily coal transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway has decreased from about 1.2 million tons per day in March to 1 million tons per day during the spring inspection, leading to a reduction in coal inventory at northern ports. During the "Golden March and Silver April", non - power demand has improved marginally in the short term. Due to the loose domestic coal supply - demand situation and continuous price decline, some enterprises have reduced foreign coal purchases, resulting in a recent decline in imported coal volume [4] - Negative factors: In April, northern heating has basically ended, and with rising temperatures, the pressure of the seasonal off - peak demand for thermal coal is emerging. The dry season of the Yangtze River is coming to an end, and the hydropower substitution effect will strengthen in May and June. The escalation of Sino - US tariff friction has put pressure on the export of some non - power terminal products of thermal coal. The National Climate Center predicts that from April 14 - 29, most areas in China will have higher - than - normal temperatures, and there will be more precipitation in the southern part of the southwest region during the flood season this year, so hydropower will gradually play a greater role [4]