Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report gives a "short - term bullish" rating for treasury bonds and suggests that stock indices will "oscillate" [2][3] 2. Core Views - Stock Indices: Tariff threats drag down the economic outlook, and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, considering the pressure from the weakening export - chain production and sales, policies may be advanced. Stock indices may oscillate. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale statements and stances to boost market sentiment will be issued after visits to ASEAN countries [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is in a situation where long - term positives conflict with the lack of further short - term positives. The selling pressure in the short - term market increases, and it's hard to predict when the current bond market pattern will be broken. Attention should be paid to relative value opportunities in bond types and yield curves [2] 3. Market Review - Stock Indices: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.90%, SSE 50 rose 0.82%, CSI 500 rose 0.47%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.06% [4] - Treasury Bonds: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.15%, 0.14%, 0.49%, and 0.08% respectively [6] 4. Technical Analysis - Stock Indices: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market oscillates with a slight upward bias [5] - Treasury Bonds: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract oscillates with a slight upward bias [7] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3710.60 | 0.90 | 55799 | 141593 | | 2025/04/17 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2633.60 | 0.82 | 28211 | 44853 | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5551.20 | 0.47 | 34523 | 21987 | | 2025/04/17 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5653.80 | 1.06 | 156019 | 168300 | | 2025/04/17 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.99 | - 0.15 | 62639 | 193114 | | 2025/04/17 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.25 | - 0.14 | 47316 | 171023 | | 2025/04/17 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.44 | - 0.49 | 93722 | 106359 | | 2025/04/17 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.49 | - 0.08 | 31161 | 112255 | [9] 6. Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends, price - to - earnings ratios, trading volumes, open interests, basis rates, and inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures and treasury bond futures, with data sources from iFinD and the research and consulting department of Yangtze River Futures [10][14][17]
金融期货日报-20250418
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-18 02:09