长江期货市场交易指引-20250418

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to rise slightly [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to weaken, and coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for range trading, aluminum for observation, nickel for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin for range operation, gold for buying on dips after full price correction, and silver for range operation [1][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to fluctuate; a short position in call options for soda ash is recommended [1][22]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen, and PTA is expected to weaken [1][31]. - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range, eggs are expected to weaken, corn is recommended for buying on dips, soybean meal is expected to be weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term, and oils and fats are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][34]. Core Viewpoints - The global economic situation is complex, with trade frictions, policy uncertainties, and supply - demand imbalances affecting various futures markets. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and macro - environment [5][8][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors such as tariff games, shrinking stock trading volume, and weakening export - chain production and sales, the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Although the short - term fundamentals are okay, policies may be advanced. Index futures may fluctuate. Attention can be paid to whether there will be large - scale statements to stimulate the market after visits to ASEAN countries [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is in a situation where long - term benefits and short - term full pricing without further benefits coexist. There is selling pressure in the short - term, and the pattern is difficult to predict. Attention can be paid to relative value opportunities [7]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: The futures price fluctuates. Although the steel demand data is good and the inventory reduction speed is accelerating, the impact of tariffs on exports is relatively large. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Iron Ore: The supply is expected to increase while the demand is expected to decline. Considering factors such as high hot metal production and possible macro - policy benefits, it may rebound slightly or fluctuate in the near - term. It is recommended to short on rebounds [9]. - Coking Coal and Coke: For coking coal, production is restricted by safety inspections, and demand is weak. For coke, production is stable, and demand is supported by high hot metal production but is affected by export expectations. Both are expected to fluctuate [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by the tariff war, the price has rebounded after a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals are still resilient, but the long - term demand may be affected. It is recommended for range trading [12]. - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is improving, the production capacity of alumina is decreasing, and the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is weakening, and the price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel: Affected by the US tariff policy and the cost of nickel ore, the price has fallen. The supply of refined nickel and nickel iron is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rallies [17]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, but the resumption of production in Congo is expected. The downstream semiconductor industry is recovering. It is recommended for range operation [19]. - Silver and Gold: Affected by the US tariff policy, market uncertainties increase, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to wait for the price to fully correct before building positions [19][21]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is weak, the supply is excessive, and the inventory is high. Recently, the inventory has decreased, and the price may have a weak rebound. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [22]. - Caustic Soda: The supply is sufficient, the demand increment is limited, and the price increase is not sustainable. Attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and alumina production [23]. - Rubber: The demand is weak, the supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand and the situation after the start of tapping [25]. - Urea: The supply is stable, the demand for compound fertilizers is high, and the summer fertilizer demand may support the price. It is recommended for range operation [27]. - Methanol: The domestic production is at a high level, the import is expected to recover, the demand is weak, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. - Plastic: The supply pressure is large, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, oil prices, and tariff games [28]. - Soda Ash: The supply is increasing, the demand is improving, but the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [30]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the supply and demand of global cotton are expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - Apples: The inventory is low, the sales are good, and the price is expected to strengthen, but macro - risks should be noted [32]. - PTA: The cost has collapsed due to factors such as the US tariff policy, and the price is under pressure. Although the supply and demand are good, the price is not optimistic [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The supply is increasing and postponed, the price rebound is under pressure, but the decline is limited. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [35][36]. - Eggs: In the short - term, the price is supported by replenishment demand, but the supply is sufficient. In the long - term, the supply will increase. It is recommended to short on rebounds [37]. - Corn: The short - term price is supported, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to buy on dips [38][39]. - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, the supply is tight in some areas, but it will be abundant from May to July. In the long - term, the price is expected to rise. It is recommended for range operation in the near - term and long - position building in the long - term [39][40]. - Oils and Fats: In the short - term, the price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited. In the long - term, the price may decline in the second quarter and strengthen in the third quarter. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and stop the spread - widening strategy for rapeseed - palm oil [45].