中辉期货原油日报-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound due to new sanctions on Iran, compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members, and easing of the tariff war [1][2][3] - LPG is expected to rebound as the cost side provides support and the basis is at a high level [1][5][7] - L is expected to be weak as the device maintains high operation, upstream inventory accumulates, and there is pressure from new device production [1][9][11] - PP is expected to be weak with short - term abundant supply and long - term pressure from device production and falling crude oil prices [1][12][14] - PVC is expected to be weak as the falling cost of calcium carbide outweighs the decline in social inventory [1][15][17] - PX is expected to be weak as the improvement in supply - demand is limited and inventory is high [1][18][19] - PTA is expected to be weak with supply pressure relieved by planned maintenance but weakening downstream demand and high inventory [1][21][22] - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a short - term shock adjustment as supply is reduced by planned maintenance and import decline, while demand may weaken [1][24] - Bottle chips are expected to be weak with increased supply, seasonal weak demand but good export prospects and rising inventory [1][25][26] - Glass is expected to be weak as it enters the delivery game period with increased delivery capacity and limited terminal demand improvement [1][27][28] - Soda ash is expected to be weak with increasing supply, stable demand, and accumulating inventory [1][29][30] - Asphalt is expected to rebound as the crack spread is high and the cost side (crude oil) rebounds [1] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 3.53%, Brent up 1.86%, and SC up 1.53% [2] - Basic Logic: New sanctions on Iran and compensation cuts by some OPEC+ members drive short - term price rebound, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] - Strategy Recommendation: In the long - term, the price fluctuates between 55 - 65 dollars due to the tariff war, new energy impact, and OPEC+ expansion. In the short - term, sell bull spread options, and focus on the range of 490 - 510 yuan for SC [4] LPG - Market Performance: On April 17, the PG main contract closed at 4480 yuan/ton, up 1.24% [6] - Basic Logic: The basis has converged but remains high, and the overall valuation is low. After the oil price rebounds, there is upward momentum [7] - Strategy Recommendation: Lightly go long, or buy call options or sell put options, and focus on the range of 4450 - 4550 yuan [8] L - Market Performance: The 5 - 9 spread increased by 13 yuan/ton day - on - day [10] - Basic Logic: New production capacity has been put into operation this year, and the import situation varies. The agricultural film season is ending, resulting in weak short - term performance and long - term bearishness [11] - Strategy Recommendation: Go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7100 - 7200 yuan [11] PP - Market Performance: The L - PP05 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton day - on - day, and the PP - 3MA05 spread decreased by 38 yuan/ton [13] - Basic Logic: New PP devices have been put into operation, and there is pressure on product exports. Short - term supply is abundant, and long - term prospects are bearish [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see, medium - term go short on rallies, and focus on the range of 7050 - 7200 yuan [14] PVC - Market Performance: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton [16] - Basic Logic: New devices were put into operation in January. Although demand has a seasonal recovery, the falling cost of calcium carbide leads to short - term weakness [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term wait - and - see, go long on pullbacks, and focus on the range of 4950 - 5100 yuan [17] PX - Market Performance: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 6865 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX05 contract closed at 6054 yuan/ton (- 50) [18] - Basic Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, but demand from PTA is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [19] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of 6000 - 6120 yuan [20] PTA - Market Performance: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4310 yuan/ton (+ 80), and the TA05 contract closed at 4358 yuan/ton (+ 8) [21] - Basic Logic: Planned maintenance eases supply pressure, but downstream demand is expected to weaken, and inventory is high. The price follows cost fluctuations [22] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of 4250 - 4330 yuan [23] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - Market Performance: On April 11, the spot price in East China was 4315 yuan/ton (- 15), and the EG05 contract closed at 4279 yuan/ton (+ 8) [24] - Basic Logic: Devices are under planned maintenance, and import volume is low, but downstream demand may weaken. Cost support is limited [24] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of 4080 - 4130 yuan [24] Bottle Chips - Market Performance: On April 11, the spot price of water - grade PET bottle chips in East China was 5600 yuan/ton (+ 180), and the PR main contract closed at 5596 yuan/ton (+ 248) [25] - Basic Logic: Device operation increases supply. Although it is the off - season for soft drinks, export is good, and inventory has increased [26] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of 5520 - 5600 yuan [26] Glass - Market Performance: The spot price in North China increased, the futures price was weak, the main basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [27] - Basic Logic: The real - estate downturn still affects demand. Supply is low, demand has a seasonal recovery, and inventory has decreased. The delivery game suppresses the near - month contract [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of 1130 - 1170 yuan [28] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The spot price of heavy soda ash was partially reduced, the futures price was weakly volatile, the basis fluctuated slightly, the number of warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30] - Basic Logic: The market is affected by macro - sentiment. Supply increases due to device operation and new capacity, demand is stable, and inventory accumulates [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the pressure of the 10 - day moving average [30] Asphalt - Market Performance: Not detailed in the content - Basic Logic: The crack spread is high, the cost side (crude oil) rebounds but lacks upward momentum, and the basis weakens [1] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan [1]