甲醇日评：利多难寻-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market lacks obvious drivers from both supply and demand sides in April. The overall situation is that it is difficult to find bullish factors. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for unilateral strategies [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2309 yuan/ton on April 17, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.94%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2333 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-1.52%); MA09 closed at 2238 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.06%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: The daily average price in Taicang was 2425 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.22%); in Shandong, it was 2565 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.10%); in Guangdong, it remained unchanged at 2475 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi, it was 2255 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Sichuan - Chongqing, it was 2310 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.65%); in Hubei, it remained unchanged at 2465 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2262.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 116 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 472.5 yuan/ton and 542.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Yulin Q6000 was 537.5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.92%) [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.3 Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol was 653 yuan/ton, up 6.3 yuan/ton (0.97%); the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained unchanged at - 410 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Profit: The profit of Northwest MTO was - 189.8 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-5.56%); the profit of East China MTO was - 822.57 yuan/ton, up 77.5 yuan/ton (8.61%); the profit of acetic acid was 570.37 yuan/ton, up 16.5 yuan/ton (2.98%); the profit of MTBE was 276.56 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (-15.31%); the profit of formaldehyde remained unchanged at - 273.2 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 continued to be weak, opening at 2270 yuan/ton, closing at 2238 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 659,451 lots and an open interest of 668,645 lots [1] - Foreign Information: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol shipments arriving in the far - month is 258 - 268 US dollars/ton. Some non - Iranian shipments arriving at the end of May were traded at 258 US dollars/ton (5000 tons). The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian shipments arriving in the far - month is +1 - 1.5%. In other Middle Eastern regions, a small number of far - month shipments were traded at +0.5% [1]