郑糖走势偏强，棉价继续承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][7][9] Core Viewpoints - The cotton market may gradually return to fundamentals as trade friction eases. Attention has shifted to new - season supply, and the market needs to focus on the drought in US cotton - growing areas and domestic demand trends [2] - The sugar market is currently in a situation where short - term international supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Zhengzhou sugar prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [5][6] - The pulp market is affected by macro - policies and supply - demand relationships. Although the trade friction has eased, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure [8][9] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was 12,890 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton (+0.47%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,032 yuan/ton, down 97 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,200 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [1] - As of the week of April 13, 2025, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 160,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 171%. The cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.3778 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1% [1] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fluctuated and closed higher. Trade friction has a limited impact, and the market may return to fundamentals. The USDA report was slightly bearish, and attention should be paid to the drought in US cotton - growing areas. Domestic supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract was 5,936 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.88%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, there were 37 sugar mills still in production in India, 37 fewer than the same period last year. The amount of crushed sugarcane was 271.328 million tons, a decrease of 35.292 million tons (-11.51%), and sugar production was 25.425 million tons, a decrease of 5.74 million tons (-18.42%) [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were strong. The short - term international sugar market supply and demand are tight, but the medium - term price may be under pressure. Domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate before the import of sugar supplements [5][6] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Focus on Brazilian weather and policy changes [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,332 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.45%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [7] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some minor adjustments [7] Market Analysis - Pulp futures prices were weakly volatile. The "reciprocal tariff" policy affected the market, but the trade friction has temporarily eased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp futures prices are expected to remain under pressure [9]