Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The price of sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. Brazil's new crushing season has started normally, and it is expected to gradually accumulate inventory from May, which will bring certain supply pressure to the international market. India's sugar production is far below expectations, and it may face a situation of production falling short of demand, which may affect its export policy. Thailand's sugar production has reached 1005 tons, higher than the previous season. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase to around 1090 tons, with low import arrivals before May and effective syrup control, resulting in limited overall supply pressure. In the long - term, global economic decline expectations due to tariff frictions may affect sugar consumption [24]. Global Supply and Demand Analysis Global Sugar Supply and Demand Tightness - The estimated shortage of global sugar supply in the 2024/2025 crushing season has increased from 2.513 million tons to 4.881 million tons, the highest in the past 9 years. Global sugar production is expected to drop to 175.54 million tons, a decrease of 5.844 million tons from the previous season, while consumption will reach a record 180.42 million tons, an increase of 0.449 million tons. There is a trade gap of 0.0663 million tons, with imports at 63.324 million tons and exports at 62.661 million tons. The market focus is shifting to Brazil's crushing production [2]. Brazil's 2025/26 Crushing Season - In the second half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 455,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.63%, while sugar production was 201,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.97%. In the 2024/2025 crushing season, the cumulative crushing volume was 621.876 million tons, a decrease of 32.573 million tons, and the cumulative sugar production was 40.169 million tons, a decrease of 5.31%. It is expected that in 2025/2026, sugarcane production will drop to 594 - 600 million tons, and sugar production will be around 40 million tons. As of the end of March, Brazil's inventory was 2.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.79 million tons, and it is expected to start accumulating inventory from May [5][8]. India's Sugar Situation - The estimated sugar production in India for the 2024/2025 crushing season is about 26.4 million tons, a downward adjustment of 0.8 million tons from the February estimate and far lower than the previous expectation of over 30 million tons. As of March 31, 2025, the total sugarcane crushing volume was 265.326 million tons, and sugar production was 24.85 million tons. India's sugar export policy has been adjusted since 2022. Its inventory is expected to decline to around 5 million tons, and it may be forced to import sugar [9][12]. Thailand's Sugar Production - Thailand's 2024/2025 crushing season has ended, with a final sugarcane crushing volume of 92.04 million tons and sugar production of 10.05 million tons. Sugar exports are expected to increase by about 15%. It is estimated that in the 2025/26 crushing season, sugarcane crushing volume will exceed 110 million tons, and sugar production is expected to break through 11 million tons, an 18% increase from the previous season [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand Situation Domestic Sugar Production - In the 2023/2024 crushing season, China's total sugar production was 9.9632 million tons. For the 2024/2025 crushing season, it is expected to increase by 500,000 - 800,000 tons to around 10.6 million tons. As of the end of March 2025, the total sugar production was 10.7479 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons. The cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. Industrial inventory was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons. It is estimated that the sugar production in Guangxi in the 2024/2025 crushing season will be about 6.5 million tons, an increase of about 300,000 tons [18][19]. Short - term Low Import Arrivals - In February 2025, China imported 20,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 96.7%. From January to February, the cumulative import was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93.3%. It is expected that the domestic import arrivals will remain at a low level before May [20]. Suspension of Syrup Imports - In 2025, from January to February, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 1.092 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.591 million tons. As of the end of February in the 2024/2025 crushing season, the total import was 7.483 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.648 million tons. In December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder was suspended, and in March 2025, the import declaration of some Vietnamese sugar products was suspended [22]. Market Outlook - Brazil's new crushing season has started normally, and it is expected to gradually accumulate inventory from May, bringing supply pressure to the international market. India's production is far below expectations, which may affect its export policy. Thailand's production has increased compared to the previous season. The domestic production is expected to increase, with low import arrivals before May and effective syrup control, resulting in limited supply pressure. In the long - term, global economic decline expectations due to tariff frictions may affect sugar consumption, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly [24].
当前白糖基本面状况
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-04-18 02:41