山西证券研究早观点-20250418

Market Overview - In March 2025, China's retail sales (社零) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 4.09 trillion yuan [4][5] - The consumer confidence index in February 2025 was 88.4, marking a continuous increase for three months [4][5] - Online retail channels outperformed overall retail sales, with physical stores showing weaker performance [4] Industry Insights - The sports and leisure goods sector saw a robust year-on-year growth of 25.4% in retail sales for Q1 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [4] - The jewelry sector experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 10.6% in March 2025, with gold prices rising by 37.4% [4][7] - The textile and apparel sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.6% in March 2025, with online channels expected to underperform compared to offline channels [4][7] Company Analysis Q1 2025 Performance - New Hope Group and other pig farming stocks are recommended due to the anticipated recovery in the pig farming industry, which is expected to enter a profit cycle starting from Q2 2024 [11] - The company "启明星辰" reported a decline in revenue due to weak downstream demand, but is focusing on strategic collaborations with China Mobile to enhance its market position [14][17] - "新和成" achieved a revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, driven by strong performance in its nutrition products segment [20][22] Future Projections - "新和成" is projected to achieve revenues of 23.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.8% [22] - "启明星辰" expects a net profit growth of 40.9% to 38.8% from 2025 to 2027, supported by expanding its product offerings and market reach [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued apparel companies such as 森马服饰 and 锦泓集团, as well as home textile companies benefiting from government subsidies [5] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies like 华利集团 and 申洲国际 are recommended for their potential market share gains amid changing industry dynamics [7] - The jewelry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and performance in Q2 2025, with companies like 潮宏基 and 周大生 highlighted for investment [7]