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申银万国期货早间策略-20250418
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-04-18 03:07
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The A-share market withstood the downward pressure from countervailing tariffs, and the implied volatility significantly declined. The subsequent focus is on China's effective policies to boost the domestic economy. It is recommended to cautiously go long [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different periods (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 3765.40, 3737.80, 3710.60, and 3656.60 respectively, with increases of 26.60, 27.60, 33.00, and 29.80, and increases of 0.71%, 0.74%, 0.90%, and 0.82% respectively. The trading volumes were 35237.00, 27620.00, 55799.00, and 10594.00 respectively, and the open interests were 26834.00, 42726.00, 141593.00, and 56169.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -19051.00, 10271.00, 53.00, and 1575.00 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different periods were 2656.80, 2644.80, 2633.60, and 2599.40 respectively, with increases of 20.60, 21.20, 21.40, and 20.20, and increases of 0.78%, 0.81%, 0.82%, and 0.78% respectively. The trading volumes were 13351.00, 10558.00, 28211.00, and 4407.00 respectively, and the open interests were 10651.00, 14318.00, 44853.00, and 17663.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -6551.00, 2153.00, -1545.00, and -225.00 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different periods were 5551.20, 5483.60, 5406.60, and 5280.20 respectively, with increases of 26.00, 44.40, 51.20, and 53.80, and increases of 0.47%, 0.82%, 0.96%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes were 34523.00, 27886.00, 44149.00, and 10689.00 respectively, and the open interests were 21987.00, 47876.00, 99918.00, and 47082.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -14575.00, 10685.00, 3537.00, and 2096.00 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different periods were 5845.80, 5749.80, 5653.80, and 5488.00 respectively, with increases of 38.20, 49.60, 59.40, and 60.80, and increases of 0.66%, 0.87%, 1.06%, and 1.12% respectively. The trading volumes were 44139.00, 39973.00, 156019.00, and 26102.00 respectively, and the open interests were 29741.00, 55797.00, 168300.00, and 74750.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -20911.00, 8196.00, -2771.00, and -3479.00 respectively [1]. - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were -27.60, -12.00, -67.60, and -96.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of -31.60, -14.80, -85.60, and -106.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - CSI 300 Index: The previous value was 3772.22, with a decrease of 0.02%. The total trading volume was 2090.12 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 122.37 billion lots [1]. - SSE 50 Index: The previous value was 2659.90, with an increase of 0.05%. The total trading volume was 713.71 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 37.88 billion lots [1]. - CSI 500 Index: The previous value was 5557.01, with an increase of 0.00%. The total trading volume was 1482.83 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 113.65 billion lots [1]. - CSI 1000 Index: The previous value was 5839.56, with an increase of 0.07%. The total trading volume was 2129.48 billion yuan, and the trading volume was 173.20 billion lots [1]. - Industry Indexes: Different industries had different changes in the CSI 300 industry index. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption industries decreased by -0.11%, -0.33%, -0.07%, and -0.86% respectively; while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries increased by 0.57%, 0.05%, 0.18%, and 0.09% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities industries decreased by -0.32% and -0.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - IF Contracts and CSI 300: The previous values of the basis for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) relative to the CSI 300 were -6.82, -34.42, -61.62, and -115.62 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -17.42, -49.02, -82.02, and -137.62 respectively [1]. - IH Contracts and SSE 50: The previous values of the basis for IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 were -3.10, -15.10, -26.30, and -60.50 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -13.90, -28.70, -38.50, and -72.90 respectively [1]. - IC Contracts and CSI 500: The previous values of the basis for IC contracts relative to the CSI 500 were -5.81, -73.41, -150.41, and -276.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -16.46, -102.06, -190.26, and -317.06 respectively [1]. - IM Contracts and CSI 1000: The previous values of the basis for IM contracts relative to the CSI 1000 were 6.24, -89.76, -185.76, and -351.56 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -15.55, -121.55, -232.35, and -400.95 respectively [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.16%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by -0.21%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.09% [1]. - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.61%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.13%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.49% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - China and Cambodia agreed to build a China - Cambodia community with a shared future in the new era and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year." They also exchanged more than 30 bilateral cooperation texts [2]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate by 25 basis points to 2.4%, and the marginal lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.65%, which was the 7th rate cut since last June [2]. - There were discussions about whether to remove Fed Chairman Powell before his term ends next year, but no final decision has been made [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the 2025 industrial energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnostic service, covering 12 high - energy - consuming fields [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation will carry out a rectification of the advertising market order [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported electrolytic capacitor paper from Japan for 5 years [2]. - In March, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.56, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and flat compared with the same period last year, and the inventory level was above the warning line [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes mainly declined. In the previous trading day, the stock indexes rose, with the real - estate sector leading the rise and the automobile sector leading the decline. The total trading volume was 1.03 trillion yuan. IH2504, IF2504, IC2504, and IM2504 increased by 0.78%, 0.71%, 0.47%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - On April 16, the margin trading balance decreased by 51.79 billion yuan to 18024.09 billion yuan [2].