Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" [1] Core Viewpoints - Domestic thermal coal prices continue to decline, while offshore prices for thermal coal from South Africa and Europe have increased month-on-month. As of April 11, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal at Qinhuangdao is 667 CNY/ton, down 3.05% from the previous month. In contrast, the offshore price of thermal coal from Newcastle, Australia is 97 USD/ton, down 1.02%, while South African Richards Bay coal increased by 1.14% to 89 USD/ton, and European ARA coal rose by 8.33% to 104 USD/ton [1][18][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal 1.1 Prices - As of April 11, the price of Shanxi mixed thermal coal is 667 CNY/ton, down 21 CNY/ton or 3.05% month-on-month. Inner Mongolia's Q5500 thermal coal is priced at 528 CNY/ton, down 0.94%, and Datong's Q5500 is at 581 CNY/ton, down 0.85% [9][10][18]. 1.2 Production - In March, key state-owned coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia saw production increases, while Shanxi experienced a decrease. Shaanxi produced 22.635 million tons (up 10.04%), Inner Mongolia 19.948 million tons (up 5.62%), and Shanxi 42.576 million tons (down 6.25%) [21][26]. 1.3 Imports - In March, coal and lignite imports reached 38.7323 million tons, up 12.73% month-on-month but down 6.40% year-on-year. Thermal coal imports in February were 8.7994 million tons, down 32.16% month-on-month and 14.18% year-on-year [26]. 1.4 Inventory - As of April 11, coal inventory at the three major ports (Qinhuangdao, Huanghua, and Caofeidian) totaled 13.968 million tons, down 7.61% month-on-month but up 21.41% year-on-year. The average number of coal ships anchored at these ports decreased by 19.67% month-on-month [31][32]. 1.5 Downstream Demand - The average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 754,400 tons as of April 11, down 4.22% month-on-month but up 3.47% year-on-year. National electricity generation increased by 12.91% month-on-month [39][42]. 1.6 Freight Rates - Domestic shipping rates have decreased, with the Qinhuangdao to Shanghai route at 27.20 CNY/ton (down 8.72%). Conversely, international shipping rates have increased, with Newcastle to China at 13 USD/ton (up 4.00%) [3][45].
煤炭行业:南非、欧洲三港动力煤离岸价涨,国际海运费涨
Dongxing Securities·2025-04-18 03:46