碳酸锂日报（2025年4月18日）-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the lithium carbonate futures 2505 contract dropped 0.4% to 70,500 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 69,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 68,900 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 74,025 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory remained at 29,262 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 574 tons to 17,388 tons, mainly from spodumene - based lithium extraction. The expected output in April is nearly 80,000 tons, and the daily average output increased by 4% month - on - month. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials increased significantly month - on - month, the output of lithium iron phosphate remained the same month - on - month, and the daily average consumption of lithium carbonate increased by about 5% month - on - month. The inventory turnover days of ternary cathode materials increased slightly, and the inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. The weekly inventory increased by 585 tons to 131,605 tons, with a decrease in other aspects and an increase in both upstream and downstream [3]. - The price is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton. In the short term, attention should be paid to the upstream production suspension and reduction, warehouse receipt inventory, and lithium ore price trends. In the medium term, the equilibrium price center will move down, the market purchasing activity is average, and the downstream finished product inventory pressure is relatively large [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract and the continuous contract of lithium carbonate futures was 70,500 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) remained at 809 US dollars/ton. The prices of various types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone decreased to varying degrees. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide decreased by 50 yuan/ton, except for the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea, which remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 58,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 1,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 2,650 yuan/ton. The difference between the CIF price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea and the SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide price increased by 6 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most ternary precursors and cathode materials remained unchanged, except for the prices of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) which decreased by 50 yuan/ton and ternary material 811 (power type) which decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of 523 square ternary cells increased by 0.002 yuan/Wh, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.02 yuan/piece, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells decreased by 0.003 yuan/Wh, and the price of cobalt acid lithium cells increased by 0.05 yuan/Ah. The prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: There are charts showing the price trends of metallic lithium, average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2025 [9][11]. - Price differences: There are charts showing the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF battery - grade lithium hydroxide in China, Japan, and South Korea and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the basis from 2024 to 2025 [16][19]. - Precursor and cathode materials: There are charts showing the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [20][26]. - Lithium battery prices: There are charts showing the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [29][32]. - Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from August 15, 2024, to April 3, 2025 [34][36]. - Production cost: There is a chart showing the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [38][39]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won many awards [42]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on the domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [43]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for customers [43].