尿素日报：下游需求减弱，尿素持续走低-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral, and it is expected that the urea market will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Downstream demand has weakened, causing the price of urea to decline continuously [1] - The supply - side pressure has increased as previously shut - down urea enterprises gradually resume production, while downstream replenishment has slowed down, leading to a decrease in overall orders and an increase in enterprise inventory [3] - The cost of coal - based and gas - based production has fluctuated slightly. The decline in urea prices has led to lower production profits, but cost support is still acceptable [3] - Agricultural fertilizer use has entered an off - season, with slow fertilizer preparation for southern rice and scattered agricultural demand. Industrial demand in the compound fertilizer and panel industries has seen a slight decline in the operating rate, and rigid demand has advanced steadily [3] - With the domestic export policy remaining tight, port inventory has fluctuated slightly [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - The report presents graphs of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [8][9][11][15][17] 3.2 Urea Production - Graphs of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [20][27] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report shows graphs of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [23][31][34] 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - Graphs of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, relevant price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][39][42][45][48] 3.5 Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Graphs of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are provided, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [55][56][57] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes graphs of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [60][61][64]