光大期货黑色商品日报-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a low - level consolidation. Although there was a panic - driven decline due to the tariff war, the peak - season demand for rebar has resilience, inventory is at a low level, and the valuation is also low, limiting further price drops [1]. - The iron ore market is likely to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply and demand factors are intertwined, with a slight decrease in global shipments and limited room for further increase in molten iron production [1]. - The coke and coking coal markets are expected to oscillate weakly. For coke, the reduction in coking costs and increased production on the supply side, along with weak steel demand and reduced cost support, contribute to this trend. For coking coal, the weak market, cautious procurement by coking enterprises, and low cost of making warehouse receipts are the main factors [1]. - The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to operate weakly. For manganese silicon, the weakening of port manganese ore prices and the need for production cuts to ease the supply - demand contradiction are key factors. For ferrosilicon, the lack of improvement in demand and the accumulation of inventory are the main reasons [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price closed at 3092 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. This week, national rebar production decreased by 3150 tons to 229220 tons, social inventory decreased by 30340 tons to 532760 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 14260 tons to 200400 tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 21140 tons to 273820 tons. It is expected to remain in low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price of iron ore futures i2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (0.14%) from the previous trading day. Port spot prices fell. Global shipments decreased slightly, while molten iron production continued to increase, but there is limited room for further growth. It is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price closed at 1555.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable. Coking production increased, and steel demand was weak, suppressing coke prices. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price closed at 950.5 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan/ton (1.6%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Some spot prices rose, and the market was weak. Coking enterprises' procurement was cautious. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price closed at 5902 yuan/ton, down 0.3% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The mainstream steel tender inquiry price in April was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from March, and the procurement volume increased by 400 tons. It is expected to operate weakly [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price closed at 5658 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. The mainstream steel tender inquiry price in April was 5900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the tender quantity decreased by 183 tons. It is expected to operate weakly [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads and basis for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. - Profit and Price Spreads: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio) are provided, including the latest values and their changes compared to the previous period [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts for various varieties from 2005 to 2025 [17][18][21][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts show the contract spreads of different periods for various varieties from 2016 to 2026 [25][27][30][33][34][36][37][38][40]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43][45]. - Rebar Profits: Charts show the rebar futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][48][49][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black - metal research field [52][53].