生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, hog prices may still reach new lows [4] - The basis for this view is that the hog supply in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, demand support is weak in the second and third quarters, the current hog出栏体重 is increasing, and there is a risk of concentrated weight reduction in the future [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Dynamics - On April 17, the registered warehouse receipts of live hogs were 290 lots [2] - The LH2505 contract is mainly about spot - futures convergence and delivery game. The far - month contracts are strongly supported by the expectations of limited increase in subsequent slaughter volume, the consumption peak season in the second half of the year, and the possible increase in far - month breeding costs [2] - The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 2,124 lots today, with an open interest of about 70,000 lots. The highest price was 14,440 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 14,305 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,440 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the hog supply from March to December is expected to increase month by month, but the increase is limited. From the perspective of piglet data, the hog slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 will increase overall in a fluctuating manner. The first half of the year is the off - season for demand, while the second half is the peak season [3] - From the historical situation and current fundamentals, there is still room for the fat - standard price difference to decline [3] - The short - side logic includes: the breeding side has not yet reduced the weight, which is actually bearish for the future market; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the second and third quarters are not yet the consumption peak season, and demand support for hog prices is limited. The long - side logic includes: the slaughter enterprises' inventory replenishment is not over, which can support hog prices; the spot price is firm, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; although there is an increase in subsequent slaughter, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the hog consumption peak season; the price increase of corn and soybean meal may raise the hog breeding cost [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The short - term hog prices may fluctuate, and in the long - term, there may still be new lows [4] - The core logic is that the hog slaughter volume in the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2025 is abundant, so there is no basis for a significant increase in hog prices; the demand support for hog prices in the second and third quarters is weak; the current hog出栏体重 is still increasing, indicating that the breeding side is still accumulating inventory, which is bearish for the future market. If there is concentrated weight reduction later, hog prices may reach new lows. Although it is considered that the spot price may still reach new lows in the long - term, due to high uncertainty and the weak short - term weight - reduction drive in the market, and the futures price is in a relatively reasonable range, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [4] 3.4 Market Overview - On April 17, the national average hog slaughter price was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 0.07% increase from the previous day. The average hog slaughter price in Henan was 14.91 yuan/kg, a 0.13% increase. The average hog slaughter price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 14.76 yuan/kg [6] - Among the futures contracts, the 01 - contract price increased by 0.5% to 14,085 yuan/ton, the 03 - contract price increased by 0.56% to 13,370 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract price increased by 1.07% to 13,690 yuan/ton, the 07 - contract price increased by 0.29% to 13,630 yuan/ton, the 09 - contract price increased by 0.77% to 14,435 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract price increased by 0.72% to 14,020 yuan/ton [6] - The main - contract basis in Henan was 475 yuan/ton, a 15.93% decrease from the previous day [6] 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The report presents data trends of multiple indicators, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main hog contract in Henan, the price difference between the 05 - 07 contracts, and the price difference between the 05 - 09 contracts [14]