【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕4月前15日产量增加3.97% IBGE巴西大豆产量预估环比下调0.1%-20250418

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report has a neutral impact, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to factors such as tariff policy changes and supply expectations [20]. - The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact on soybeans. The price of US soybeans may be boosted to some extent, but it is expected to fluctuate more sharply in the short term due to policy uncertainties [21][22]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD crude palm oil futures contract 07 was 4034.00, with a previous - day decline of 0.91% and an overnight increase of 0.67%. Brent crude oil contract 06 closed at 66.06, with a previous - day increase of 1.87% and an overnight increase of 0.43%. US crude oil contract 06 closed at 61.94, with a previous - day increase of 1.59% and an overnight increase of 0.19% [1]. - The latest price of the US dollar index was 99.270, down 0.86%. The exchange rate of CNY/USD was 7.2133, up 0.05%. The exchange rate of MYR/USD was 4.3922, down 0.01% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in North China was 9330, with a basis of 700 and no change from the previous day. In East China, the spot price was 9050, with a basis of 420 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 7990, with a basis of 328 and a decrease of 32 from the previous day. In Guangzhou, the spot price was 8030, with a basis of 368 and a decrease of 32 [2]. Weather Forecast - From April 21 - 25, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally higher than normal levels. The temperature in the Midwest fluctuates, and wet conditions in the south may delay sowing [3][5]. - The weather in Argentina is dry, and soybeans and corn continue to mature. A front will enter later this week, making the weather drier [6]. Supply and Demand Data - From April 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 3.97%, and exports increased by 7.05% compared to the same period last month. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to reach 47 million tons [7]. - As of April 10, the estimated net increase in US soybean export sales was between 100,000 and 950,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 soybean planting area is expected to be 47.362525 million hectares, and the production is estimated to be 1.64262448 billion tons [8]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On April 16, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 79,000 tons, a significant increase from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the operating rate of oil mills increased [13]. - As of April 15, the port inventory of soybean oil was 687,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week [13]. Macro News - Internationally, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in May is 83.2%. The US 2 - month business inventory monthly rate was 0.2%, and the 4 - month NAHB housing market index was 40 [14]. - Domestically, on April 16, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate was 7.2133, up 37 points. China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year [18]. Key Information Analysis - The MPOB March palm oil report showed an increase in ending inventory, production, imports, and consumption. The impact on the market is neutral, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile [20]. - The USDA April soybean report adjusted US and Brazilian soybean data, with a neutral impact on the market. US soybean prices may fluctuate more sharply in the short term [21][22]. Capital Flows - On April 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 6.976 billion yuan, including a net inflow of 2.279 billion yuan in commodity futures and 4.697 billion yuan in stock index futures [26].