20250418申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250418

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper, zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations; aluminum, nickel prices may have short - term oscillatory movements [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices rose. Current low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with power investment driven by the power grid growing rapidly, and home appliance production continuing to increase. The decline in real - estate data has narrowed. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, RMB exchange rate, inventory, and basis [1] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices rose. Recent concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year, and smelting supply may recover. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the expected increase in production. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as the US dollar, RMB exchange rate, and smelting output [1] Aluminum - Night - session Shanghai aluminum prices fell 0.5%. US tariff policies are inconsistent, and Trump may impose tariffs on semiconductors, putting pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, after alumina reaches a low level, the profit on the futures market is low, and bottom - fishing sentiment in the market has fermented, leading to a small rebound at the low level on the futures market, but supply is still sufficient, and the upside space for prices is limited. In April, downstream demand continued to pick up, and the order volume and operating rate in sectors such as profiles and alloys increased moderately. Considering the uncertainty of tariff policies, Shanghai aluminum may mainly oscillate in the short term [1] Nickel - Night - session Shanghai nickel prices fell 0.2%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and coupled with improved market sentiment, nickel prices strengthened at a low level. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources previously proposed that the PNBP policy may be implemented before Eid al - Fitr, which may lead to a further increase in nickel ore prices and transfer the cost to downstream enterprises. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and the inventory of nickel salt products is not high, so prices may continue to rise. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. With multiple factors at play, nickel prices may oscillate in the short term [1] Market Data - Copper: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 75,870 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 9,254 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.22 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 213,400 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,850 tons [2] - Aluminum: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 19,730 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 30 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,385 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 37.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,150 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,825 tons [2] - Zinc: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,260 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,595 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 31.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 195,350 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 4,800 tons [2] - Nickel: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 126,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,090 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 15,745 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 202.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 204,528 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 1,938 tons [2] - Lead: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,750 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,928 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 16.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 281,625 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 1,500 tons [2] - Tin: domestic previous - day futures closing price was 257,770 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,490 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month futures closing price was 31,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 264.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,850 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 5 tons [2]