冠通期货资讯早间报-20250418

1. Overnight Market Trends International Market - International oil prices rose across the board, with the June contract of US crude up 3.11% at $63.75 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude up 2.75% at $67.66 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3341.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.32% at $32.55 per ounce [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME lead up 1.23% at $1927.50 per ton, LME tin up 1.16% at $31320.00 per ton, etc., while LME aluminum fell 0.15% at $2385.00 per ton [2]. - CBOT agricultural product futures contracts were mixed, with soybean futures down 0.33% at 1046.75 cents per bushel, corn futures down 0.25% at 490.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 0.09% at 561.5 cents per bushel [2]. Domestic Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down. Energy and chemical products mostly fell, while crude oil rose 3.4% and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.76%. Black - series products all fell. Agricultural products and base metals were mixed [3]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates for the seventh time and criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for being "too late" and making wrong decisions, calling for Fed rate cuts [6]. - China's GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year - on - year, with the primary industry up 3.5%, the secondary industry up 5.9%, and the tertiary industry up 5.3% [6]. - The G20 Development Working Group's second meeting was held, with China clarifying its stance on the US "reciprocal tariffs" and many parties calling for maintaining the multilateral trading system [7]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of policy timing and intensity, suggesting early and forceful policy actions [7]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, and also cut other key rates, bringing borrowing costs to the lowest since early 2023 [7]. - Many institutions predict that macro - stimulus policies may be intensified in Q2, and it is an important observation window for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The production of the float glass industry was basically stable, with the average operating rate at 75.66% (up 0.24% month - on - month) and the average capacity utilization rate at 79.03% (unchanged month - on - month). The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly [10]. - Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were cut by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton respectively [10]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose to a 17 - week high, light distillate oil inventory fell to a 19 - week low, and middle distillate oil inventory rose to a 3 - week high [10]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly, with light soda ash inventory up and heavy soda ash inventory down [11]. Metal Futures - A zinc smelter in Southwest China postponed its maintenance plan to late May, and a large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory [13]. - Switzerland's gold exports to the US in March decreased by 32%, and the total gold exports decreased by 27% month - on - month, while imports increased by 4% [13]. - Peru's copper production in February increased slightly year - on - year, and it is expected to rebound by 2% - 4% in 2025 [15]. - Alphamin Resources restarted tin production at its Bisie mine in the DRC [15]. Black - series Futures - HeSteel Group set the April silicon - manganese price at 5950 yuan/ton, with an increase in procurement volume [17]. - Rebar apparent demand increased for the ninth consecutive week, factory inventory and production decreased, and social inventory decreased for the sixth consecutive week [17]. - The export of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland in March increased compared to February [17]. - The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased to a 3 - month high, with an increase in daily coal production and inventory [18]. Agricultural Futures - As of April 17, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was faster than the same period last year [21]. - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [21]. - As of the end of March, textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased, with 35% of enterprises increasing inventory [21]. - The sugar - cane crushing season in Maharashtra, India is coming to an end, with lower sugar recovery rate than last year [21]. - Brazil's 2024/2025 sugar - cane and sugar production forecasts were adjusted slightly [22]. - Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025 soybean exports to a record high and lowered the estimated ending inventory [22]. - US soybean export net sales in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 met or exceeded market expectations [24]. - The IGC estimated that the global soybean production in 2025/26 would increase, trade volume would decrease, and consumption would increase [24]. 3. Financial Market Financial Sector - Six departments including the central bank issued guidelines on cross - border data flow in the financial industry [26]. - The Securities Association of China drafted an evaluation method for securities companies in promoting financial development [26]. - 28 wealth management companies' equity - related asset scale at the end of 2024 was relatively small [26]. - The number of public fund managers reached a new high [26]. Real Estate Market - Qingdao launched a "trade - in" housing program, planning to acquire over 1200 second - hand houses [27]. Industrial Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched an energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis service for high - energy - consuming industries [28]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an advertising market rectification campaign [28]. - The Ministry of Commerce continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Japanese electrolytic capacitor paper for 5 years [29]. - National railway passenger volume in Q1 reached a record high [30]. - The comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in March was above the warning line [31]. - Zhejiang launched a cross - border e - commerce market expansion action [32]. - A seminar on the "Product Digital Passport" is to be held, and related achievements will be released [32]. Overseas Market - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and believed Powell would leave if asked [34]. - The central banks of South Korea, Ukraine, Turkey, and Egypt made different interest - rate decisions [35][36][37][41]. - US economic data including initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, and housing starts showed mixed performance [38][39]. - Germany's March PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [40]. - Switzerland's trade surplus in March increased [42]. - Australia's unemployment rate remained stable in March, and employment increased [44]. International Stock Market - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [45]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun visited Beijing and expressed the hope to continue cooperation with China [46]. - Apple's CEO Cook had a private talk about iPhone price hikes [47]. - Blackstone Group's Q1 revenue and net profit decreased compared to the previous year [48]. - Hermès' Q1 revenue was slightly lower than expected, and it plans to raise prices in the US [49]. - UnitedHealth Group's Q1 revenue and profit increased significantly, but adjusted EPS forecast for 2025 was lowered [49]. - ASML expects strong performance in the Chinese market and has no plan to build a factory in the US [50]. - The "Stargate" AI project led by OpenAI and SoftBank is considering investing in the UK [51]. - Ford Motor recalled 24,655 vehicles in the US due to safety issues [53]. - Netflix's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations [54]. Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down, with some energy and chemical products falling and some rising [55]. - Domestic refined oil prices had the fourth cut this year, with the largest decline in nearly three years [56]. - Asia's Q1 cocoa processing volume decreased year - on - year [57]. - BHP Billiton's expected Q3 copper production and annual production guidance were announced [58]. - US EIA natural gas inventory increased less than expected last week [59]. - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable [60]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a two - day decline [61]. Bond Market - The bond market weakened, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising. The central bank may provide liquidity support [63]. - Convertible bond indexes rose slightly, with some individual bonds having significant price changes [64]. - There were major events in the bond market, including bond redemptions, debt defaults, and full bond buy - backs [64]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted upwards [65]. - The RMB's share in global payments in March was 4.13%, slightly lower than the previous value [66].