鲍威尔发表“鹰派”讲话，欧央行如期降息

Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures [4] Core Viewpoints - External risks are rising, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's economy is forming a new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation [1] - The US "reciprocal tariff" policy intensifies stagflation trading, and the subsequent tariff game continues, which may push the Fed into a stagflation policy dilemma [2] - Pay attention to the abnormal movements of US Treasury bonds and the US dollar, and be vigilant about the emotional impact on commodities in the short - term and focus on stagflation allocation in the long - term [3] - After the short - term tariff event impacts global assets, pay attention to liquidity risks. Wait for the market to stabilize and then focus on the allocation opportunities of anti - inflation assets and A - shares [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's policies in March are positive, with an increase in the deficit rate, a decrease in the CPI target, and an expansion of government credit. The official manufacturing PMI in March improved month - on - month, and the GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The A - share market was active on April 17th. Also, pay attention to the possibility of domestic policy easing [1] Tariff Policy - Trump signed an executive order on "reciprocal tariffs" on April 2nd, imposing a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners. The subsequent tariff game is complex, and the US - China tariff war has escalated. The US tariff policy may lead to stagflation and put pressure on the Fed [2] US Treasury Bonds and US Dollar - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has risen rapidly, mainly due to concerns about US Treasury bond buyers this year. The US dollar has been affected by Trump's policies, and the US liquidity situation needs further tracking [3] Commodities - For industrial products, be vigilant about the emotional impact from the adjustment of the US stock market. For agricultural products, the probability of price increases is higher. The oil market supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, and the certainty of gold is relatively strong [3] Strategy - Overall neutral for commodities and stock index futures. Pay attention to liquidity risks in the short - term and look for three signals of sentiment easing, and then focus on anti - inflation assets and A - shares after the market stabilizes [4] News - The Ministry of Commerce will accelerate the introduction of policies such as optimizing tax - free shopping for outbound tourists. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on April 17th. The US - Japan trade negotiation will have the next round in a month [1][6]