Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The supply of spot goods is tight, and the customs clearance time in some regions has been extended to over 20 days. There are expectations of a huge arrival of Brazilian soybeans in May and June in China. The planting area of new - crop US soybeans is expected to decrease. The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact. On the demand side, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August, the inventory of meat and egg poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year. The downstream transaction and pick - up of goods have improved. Domestic soybean inventories are increasing but currently low, and soybean meal inventories have dropped significantly to a low level. Based on import cost support, it is recommended to consider buying on dips for far - month contracts [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian on April 17 was 650, down 161; in Tianjin, it was 670, down 121; in Rizhao, it was 400, down 221. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 350, down 111; in Dongguan, it was 270, down 41; in Zhanjiang, it was 310, down 21; in Fangcheng, it was 320, down 41. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 46, down 12 [6] Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 580, down 10; the spread on the main contract was 640, up 26 [7] International Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.2502, down 2. The soybean CNF premium was 215.00 cents per bushel [7] Inventory Data - Domestic soybean inventories are increasing but currently low, and soybean meal inventories have dropped significantly to a low level. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [7][8] Supply - Demand Situation - Supply side: Spot supply is tight, and customs clearance time in some regions has been extended. There are expectations of a huge arrival of Brazilian soybeans in May and June in China. As of April 1, the purchase progress for May was 85.2%, June was 53.9%, July was 21.9%, and August was 4.9%. The USDA planting intention report in March lowered the planting area of new - crop US soybeans to 83.495 million acres, and it is expected to further decrease under the trade war. The USDA April supply - demand report has a neutral impact. Demand side: From the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before August; the inventory of meat poultry is expected to remain high in the first half of the year, and the inventory of egg poultry is expected to remain high before April. As the spot price drops, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal increases. In some regions, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein. The downstream transaction and pick - up of goods have improved [7][8]
蛋白数据日报-20250418
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-04-18 06:40