Monalisa(002918) 华泰证券·2025-04-18 07:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 10.78 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.631 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 125 million RMB, down 53.06% year-on-year. The fourth quarter revenue was 1.059 billion RMB, down 23.05% year-on-year and 14.46% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -15.56 million RMB [1]. - The company is actively managing costs and has effectively reduced expenses to counteract price pressures in the market. The gross margin for the year decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 27.32% [2]. - The company has signed agreements to offset debts with real estate, amounting to 310 million RMB, indicating proactive asset protection measures [3]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, which may stabilize demand for the company's products, as the decline in real estate sales is expected to narrow [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 0.49, 0.61, and 0.70 RMB respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to ongoing market pressures [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.631 billion RMB, a decline of 21.79% from the previous year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 125 million RMB, down 53.06% year-on-year. The fourth quarter saw a revenue of 1.059 billion RMB, with a net loss of 15.56 million RMB [1][7]. - The company’s sales volume of ceramic products decreased by 16.34% year-on-year, with an average price per square meter dropping by 7.8% to 36 RMB [2]. Cost Management - The company has implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a gross margin of 27.32%, down from the previous year [2]. - The management expenses increased slightly, with a total period expense ratio of 19.78%, reflecting a 0.59 percentage point increase year-on-year [3]. Market Outlook - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with a potential stabilization in demand for building materials driven by government policies aimed at boosting consumption [4]. - The company anticipates that the decline in product demand will also stabilize as the real estate market improves [4]. Earnings Forecast - The EPS for 2025 is projected at 0.49 RMB, with subsequent years showing gradual improvement to 0.61 RMB in 2026 and 0.70 RMB in 2027. This reflects a downward adjustment from previous estimates due to ongoing market challenges [5][14].