HTSC·2025-04-18 07:02Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in the data for breeding sows, with a 0.96% decrease in the breeding sow inventory at the end of Q1, marking the end of three consecutive quarters of increase. This indicates a potential shift in production capacity [1][2] - Despite the recent increase in pig prices, the report suggests that the downward trend in prices may be difficult to reverse in the future due to increased supply from rising breeding sow inventories and piglet numbers [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the official start of production capacity reduction, which could present investment opportunities in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [1][3] Summary by Sections Breeding Sow Inventory - As of the end of Q1, the national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 390,000 heads or approximately 0.96% from the previous quarter, ending a trend of increases observed from Q2 to Q4 of the previous year [2] - Third-party monitoring data shows mixed results, with some reporting increases while others indicate a decrease, suggesting a more accurate reflection of actual production capacity trends [2] Pig Prices - Post-Spring Festival, pig prices have remained stable, fluctuating between 14.5 to 14.7 yuan per kilogram, with a brief increase to 15 yuan per kilogram around mid-April, which was stronger than market expectations [3] - The report attributes the stability in prices to factors such as low frozen product inventories and increased market demand, although it warns that the overall trend may still be downward due to rising supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that may benefit from the anticipated changes in production capacity, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group as key investment opportunities [1][3][8]