3月社零报告专题：3月社零同比+5.9%，促消费政策出台有望提振信心

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Weight" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [57]. Core Insights - In March 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 40,940 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 4.36% [6][11]. - Urban market growth has surpassed rural market growth for the first time in nearly 20 months, with urban retail sales increasing by 6% year-on-year [13]. - Online consumption continues to show strong growth, with online retail sales of goods and services increasing by 7.9% and 5.7% year-on-year, respectively [15]. - The consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.5% [31]. - The unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [44]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Sales - The retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 grew by 5.9% year-on-year, reaching 40,940 billion yuan, which is higher than the expected growth rate [11]. By Category - The share of goods retail has increased, with food and beverage categories showing stable growth. In March, the total retail sales of goods reached 36,705 billion yuan, also growing by 5.9% year-on-year [22][24]. - Essential goods showed robust growth, with food, beverages, and daily necessities increasing by 13.8%, 4.4%, and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively [29]. Price Performance - The CPI and PPI both decreased year-on-year, with the PPI declining by 2.5% due to weak upstream energy prices. The PPI-CPI gap widened to -2.4% [31][38]. Employment Situation - The urban unemployment rate in March 2025 was 5.2%, which is consistent with the levels seen in 2019 and the previous year [44][47]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the high-end liquor and regional leading brands in the liquor sector, as the valuation is currently at a low point and policies are expected to boost demand [54]. - The cosmetics sector is also highlighted for stable growth, with domestic brands likely to increase their market share amid rising uncertainties in international relations [54].