原油燃料油日报：美国对伊朗新制裁措施推动油价实现显著回弹-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy supports the stabilization and rebound of oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward macro - economic pressure and the expected deterioration of fundamentals due to OPEC's production increase continue to suppress oil prices. After significant fluctuations, oil prices may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [4]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side and have difficulty in having independent market trends. The high - sulfur variety's short - term strong support pattern remains unchanged, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety has not shown significant pressure for the time being [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) strengthened restrictions on Iran's oil trade, adding a Chinese independent refinery and multiple shipping companies and vessels to the sanctions list. On April 17, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.88% to 482.7 yuan/barrel, and closed at 495.3 yuan/barrel at night. Internationally, WTI closed up 1.92 dollars/barrel at 63.75 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 1.96 dollars/barrel at 66.92 dollars/barrel [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situation - Powell mentioned that the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy may lead to persistent inflation and slower economic growth, and reiterated not to rush to cut interest rates. Trump criticized Powell, and the conflict between them may affect US economic policies and financial market stability. Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum on a mineral agreement, and Trump said the agreement would be signed on the 24th [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The US imposed the eighth round of sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil trade network, which increased concerns about a decline in Iran's crude oil production. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, 260,000 barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. Russia plans to keep its crude oil production and exports stable until 2050 [13][14]. Demand - Due to trade tensions, the IEA and OPEC both lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. China's imports of Iranian crude oil reached a record high of 1.8 million barrels per day in March, with Shandong alone absorbing over 1.5 million barrels per day [15]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 515,000 barrels in the week ending April 11. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.4%, indicating that the spring maintenance this year may last longer than usual. The terminal demand was weak, and the reduction in gasoline inventory slowed down [3]. 3.5 Price Monitoring Crude Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose, with increases of 3.32%, 2.92%, and 2.71% respectively. Most of the spot prices also increased, and the price differences between different varieties changed to varying degrees [7]. Fuel Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, with increases of 2.42%, 3.36%, and 1.26% respectively. Most of the spot and paper - cargo prices also increased, and the inventory in Singapore increased by 3.93% [8]. 3.6 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - The domestic SC main contract and some spot prices rose. Internationally, WTI and Brent prices also increased. The US - Iran sanctions, trade tensions, and other factors affected the supply and demand of the oil market [9][10][13]. 3.7 Industry Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of the oil market [18][21][23]