到港量增多叠加需求预期悲观，乙二醇维持偏弱震荡格局

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The ethylene glycol market maintains a weak and volatile pattern due to increased arrivals and pessimistic demand expectations. The cost side is affected by Sino - US tariff games, causing oil price fluctuations. The supply side has multiple device changes, and the overall start - up load has declined. The demand side shows a certain polyester load, and the inventory has decreased. There is a need to wait for inventory depletion signals for valuation repair opportunities [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Price: The spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract was 4,113 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase from the previous trading day, with a basis of 107 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost: Sino - US tariff games have intensified oil price fluctuations. WTI crude oil closed at $61.94 per barrel, and Brent oil closed at $65.04 per barrel [3]. - Supply: Multiple ethylene glycol production devices have changes in start - up and shutdown schedules. As of April 17, the overall start - up load in mainland China was 65.32% (a 1.73% decrease from the previous period), and the planned arrivals at the main ports from April 14 - 20 were about 16.1 tons [3]. - Demand: The polyester load was around 93.4%, and the total turnover in the Light Textile City was 9.27 million meters [3]. - Inventory: On April 14, the inventory at the main ports in East China was about 771,000 tons, a decrease of 29,000 tons from the previous period [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - Futures and Spot: The main contract price of MEG futures increased by 0.02%, the trading volume increased by 23.12%, and the open interest decreased by 17.52%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.12%, and the basis decreased by 0.93% [6]. - Profit: The profit of naphtha - based production decreased by 12.14%, the profit of ethylene - based production increased by 1.27%, the profit of methanol - based production increased by 2.75%, and the profit of coal - based production remained unchanged [6]. - Start - up Load: The overall start - up rate of ethylene glycol decreased by 0.37%, the polyester factory load decreased by 1.50%, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 15.62% [6]. - Inventory and Arrivals: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 3.63%, the inventory in Zhangjiagang remained unchanged, and the arrivals increased by 8.32% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Macro - dynamics: China's central bank released March financial data, showing that financing demand is slowly recovering. However, the tariff war has brought uncertainties, and the central bank's supportive policies are waiting for opportunities. The US plans to impose new tariffs on Chinese products such as semiconductors and electronics [7][8]. - Domestic and Overseas Markets: The external market of MEG declined in the morning, and the internal market was also weak. The current spot basis and forward contract basis have corresponding price ranges [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price of ethylene glycol futures and spot, international spot prices, profit calculations of mainstream processes, start - up rates of domestic devices and the polyester industry chain, import arrivals, port out - bound volumes, and inventory at the main ports in East China [11][12][14][15][17][19][20].