一季度经济数据点评：供需端均实现“开门红”

GDP Performance - In Q1, the actual GDP growth rate was 5.4%, and the nominal GDP growth rate was 4.6%, consistent with last year[9] - The GDP deflator index was -0.8%, roughly in line with Q4 of the previous year[9] - The secondary industry growth rate was 5.9%, up 0.7 percentage points from Q4 last year, while the tertiary industry growth rate was 5.3%, down 0.5 percentage points[9] Production Insights - Industrial added value in March grew by 7.7%, with a Q1 growth rate of 6.5%[11] - The manufacturing and mining sectors saw high growth rates of 7.1% and 6.2%, respectively[12] - The capacity utilization rate for industrial enterprises was 74.1%, indicating structural adjustments in industrial production[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 4.2% in Q1, an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous year[19] - Broad infrastructure investment grew by 11.5%, with electric, heat, and water investments as the largest contributors, growing by 26.0%[19] - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0%, driven by high growth in sectors covered by the "two new" policies[19] Consumption Patterns - Retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous year[26] - The "old-for-new" policy significantly boosted consumption in home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment, with growth rates of 19.3%, 18.1%, and 26.9%, respectively[26] - Jewelry consumption surged by 6.9% due to rising gold prices[26] Outlook and Risks - The ongoing tension between stable domestic demand and external pressures remains a key focus[33] - The implementation of a 145% tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. is expected to impact exports directly, increasing external demand volatility risks[33] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is critical for assessing policy directions to support economic stability[33]