火炬电子（603678）：新备货周期有望牵引业绩增长，新材料需求端或引来复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set at 36.3 CNY, maintaining the rating for the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 2.802 billion CNY for 2024, a decrease of 20.04% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 195 million CNY, down 38.9% year-on-year. The revenue decline is attributed to macroeconomic factors and a slow recovery in downstream market demand, particularly due to reduced demand from trade business clients. However, a demand turning point is anticipated in the future [1]. - The self-produced component business generated sales revenue of 992 million CNY, accounting for 35.4% of the main business revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 11.77%. The company is expected to benefit from the release of previously delayed orders and a new procurement cycle driven by military informationization initiatives [2]. - The new materials segment achieved sales revenue of 141 million CNY, representing 5.02% of main business revenue, with a year-on-year decline of 19.41%. The company has made progress in downstream applications of core products, which may lead to a recovery in demand as the aerospace equipment market expands [3]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's financial projections indicate a recovery in net profit, with estimates of 502 million CNY, 722 million CNY, and 950 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 33.40, 23.22, and 17.64 [4][3]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the years 2025 to 2027 are 33.98%, 33.24%, and 31.69% respectively, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [4]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 8.238 billion CNY by 2025, with a net profit margin expected to improve to 14.43% by 2027 [13]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.42 CNY in 2024 to 2.06 CNY in 2027, reflecting significant growth potential [4][13].