农林牧渔行业双周报（2025、4、4-2025、4、17）：外部冲击有限，关注内需市场-20250418

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [47] Core Viewpoints - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 2.64% from April 4 to April 17, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 4.96 percentage points [12][13] - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with only animal health showing a negative return of 5.69%. The other sectors, including planting, feed, breeding, agricultural product processing, and fishery, saw increases of 5.5%, 3.53%, 2.79%, 2.66%, and 1.74%, respectively [13][14] - Approximately 72% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns, indicating a favorable market environment [14] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 2.6 times, reflecting a recovery in valuation, yet it remains at a historical low level, around 57.6% of the valuation center since 2006 [20] Industry Important Data - Pig Farming: - The average price of external three-way cross pigs increased from 14.79 CNY/kg to 14.94 CNY/kg between April 4 and April 17, 2025 [21] - The breeding sow inventory reached 40.66 million heads by the end of February 2025, slightly up by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.6% year-on-year, nearing the upper limit of the capacity control green zone [24] - The current prices for corn and soybean meal are 2268.82 CNY/ton and 3502 CNY/ton, respectively, with both showing slight increases [26] - Profitability for self-bred pigs is 79.46 CNY/head, while for purchased piglets, it is 21.88 CNY/head, both showing improvements [29] - Poultry Farming: - The average price of broiler chicks is 2.97 CNY/chick, showing an increase, while the price for layer chicks remains stable at 4.25 CNY/chick [30] - The average price for white feather broilers is 7.5 CNY/kg, with a slight decrease in profitability to -0.09 CNY/chick [32] - Aquaculture: - The average wholesale price for crucian carp is 20.67 CNY/kg, showing a slight increase, while the price for carp is 14.22 CNY/kg, which has slightly decreased [36] Industry Insights - The report highlights that the impact of trade friction on agriculture is manageable, with the Chinese government promoting agricultural modernization and competitiveness through the "Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power" plan [47] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in breeding, feed, animal health, and seed industries that are expected to benefit from the implementation of this plan [47] - Specific companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and others noted for their competitive advantages in cost control and scale [49]