Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-18 09:21Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract of PVC closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week's close. With weak supply - demand fundamentals, the V2509 contract oscillated within a range. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. - In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - Price: The PVC main contract shifted to the 09 contract. As of April 18, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 5,032 yuan/ton, down 1.08% from the previous week [9]. - Fundamentals - Supply: This week, some devices restarted and some underwent maintenance. The overall capacity utilization rate increased by 0.68% month - on - month to 77.35%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate increased by 0.13% month - on - month to 79.35%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate increased by 2.11% month - on - month to 72.09% [9]. - Demand: Last week, the PVC pipe production rate increased by 0.31% month - on - month to 50.31%, and the PVC profile production rate decreased by 0.85% month - on - month to 40.00%. As of April 17, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.74% month - on - month to 725,000 tonnes, maintaining a downward trend [9]. - Cost: This week, calcium carbide and ethylene prices fell. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 4.05% month - on - month to 5,265 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the national ethylene method decreased by 1.35% month - on - month to 5,631 yuan/ton [9]. - Outlook: In April - May, the PVC industry has intensive maintenance. Next week, the restart of a 800,000 - tonne device of Bohua may drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. Downstream PVC floor enterprises are on hold due to tariff impacts, and the demand for pipes and profiles is dragged down by the weak real - estate market. Regarding costs, the decline of calcium carbide prices is expected to slow down, and ethylene prices are expected to be weakly sorted. In the short term, the V2509 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support around 4,950 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price and Warehouse Receipts: The V2509 contract oscillated within a range, and the number of registered warehouse receipts increased week - on - week [10]. - Position and Spread: The main contract shifted, and the position volume increased. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [13]. - Spot Market - Spot Price - Import and Export: The CFR China quotation was 700 US dollars (+0); the Southeast Asian quotation was 670 US dollars (+0) [19]. - Spot Price - Overseas: The Indian quotation was 700 US dollars (+0) [24]. - Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods: This week, the price of calcium carbide method in East China increased week - on - week, and the price of ethylene method decreased week - on - week [27]. - Basis: The shift of the main contract led to a weakening of the main basis, and the futures market remained in a contango state [31]. 3.3. Industry Conditions - Upstream - Blue Coke and Calcium Carbide: This week, the blue coke price remained stable, and the calcium carbide price fell. The blue coke production rate was 51.61%, and the calcium carbide production rate was 60.80% [35][40]. - EDC and VCM: The VCM CIF intermediate price was 530 US dollars/ton, and the international EDC price was 206 US dollars/ton [44]. - Industrial Chain - Supply - Capacity and Output: In 2025, the PVC capacity growth rate is expected to be 10.77%. The output in March was 2.0691 million tonnes, increasing month - on - month [48]. - Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance: This week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month [52]. - Demand - Downstream Production Rates: Last week, the pipe production rate increased month - on - month, and the profile production rate decreased month - on - month [55]. - Demand - PVC Floor Exports: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [60]. - Import and Export: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [63]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory decreased month - on - month [68]. - Cost: The comprehensive cost of the calcium carbide method in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan decreased, and the cost of the ethylene method in North China decreased [72]. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method recovered, and the profit of the ethylene method in East China increased week - on - week [77]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 16.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.17%, and that of put options was 14.46% [83].