Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-04-18 09:21Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply surplus but high long - term uncertainty. The rapeseed meal market is affected by factors such as South American soybean harvest, US soybean inventory, and tariff policies, with short - term price suppression and long - term supply likely to tighten. For both rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, short - term trading is recommended [8][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation is recommended [7]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed oil futures closed lower in a volatile manner. The closing price of the main 09 contract was 9,221 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton from the previous week [8]. - Market Outlook: Canadian rapeseed exports are temporarily unaffected. The rising rapeseed price supports domestic rapeseed oil prices. Palm oil is under pressure due to the upcoming seasonal production increase. The US tariff suspension improves market sentiment. In China, the decline in rapeseed imports in Q1 eases supply pressure, but rising import costs limit future imports. However, rising inventories continue to restrain prices [8]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation is recommended [10]. - Market Review: This week, rapeseed meal futures closed lower in a volatile manner. The closing price of the 09 contract was 2,597 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton from the previous week [11]. - Market Outlook: South American soybean harvests are progressing, pressuring international soybean prices. The US soybean ending inventory forecast is lowered, and the planting progress is slow. In China, the arrival of Brazilian soybeans in mid - to - late April suppresses soybean meal prices. The 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal raises import costs, but new imports from India and high short - term inventories suppress rapeseed meal prices [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures closed lower with a total open interest of 292,103 lots, an increase of 46,921 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures also closed lower with a total open interest of 628,479 lots, an increase of 47,356 lots from the previous week [17]. - The net long position of the top 20 holders in rapeseed oil futures decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders in rapeseed meal futures increased significantly [23]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - As of Friday, the registered warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil were 1,791 lots, and for rapeseed meal were 1,000 lots [29]. Spot Price and Basis - As of Friday, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,370 yuan/ton, up from last week. The basis between the active contract and the Jiangsu spot price was +149 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,490 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was - 107 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - As of Friday, the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was +154 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal was +201 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [45]. Futures - to - Spot Ratio - As of Friday, the ratio of the 09 contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 3.55, and the average spot price ratio was 3.76 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - As of Friday, the 09 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,517 yuan/ton (narrowed slightly this week), and between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,089 yuan/ton (narrowly fluctuated). The 09 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 424 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of April 10, 2025 was 720 yuan/ton [59][65]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - Side Inventory and Import Forecast: As of April 11, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 350,000 tons, a 16.67% increase from the previous period. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in April, May, and June 2025 were 240,000, 200,000, and 430,000 tons respectively [71]. - Supply - Side Import and Pressing Profit: As of April 17, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was +324 yuan/ton [75]. - Supply - Side Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 15th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 46,000 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.45% [79]. - Supply - Side Monthly Import Volume: In February 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 333,054.94 tons, a 17.46% year - on - year increase [83]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply - Side Inventory and Import Volume: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 888,000 tons, a 1.12% increase from last week. In March 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 78.95% year - on - year increase [87]. - Demand - Side Consumption and Production: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440,400 tons, and the catering revenue was 423.5 billion yuan [91]. - Demand - Side Contract Volume: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 171,000 tons, a 9.03% decrease from last week [95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply - Side Weekly Inventory: As of the end of the 15th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 19,000 tons, a 33.22% decrease from last week [99]. - Supply - Side Import Volume: In February 2025, China's rapeseed meal imports were 287,934.42 tons, a 38.62% year - on - year increase [103]. - Demand - Side Feed Production: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,777,200 tons [107]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The implied volatility of rapeseed meal options oscillated and declined. As of April 18, it was 22.71%, a 0.96% decrease from the previous week, and was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [111]. Representative Enterprise - For Daodaoquan, the PE (TTM) was 18.37, with a - 3.47% change, and the percentile was 74.18% [113].