中原期货晨会纪要-20250418

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents the daily market tracking data of commodity indices, including macro - indicators, international and domestic futures contracts of various commodities, and provides morning meeting views on major varieties in different sectors such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option - finance [2][4][12]. - In the macro - economic aspect, China's first - quarter financial and real - estate GDP showed growth, and various policies were introduced, including promoting Sino - Cambodian cooperation, attracting foreign investment, and supporting the construction of the modern commercial circulation system [7][8]. - In the market operation, different sectors have different trends. For example, the A - share market has mixed performance, and the futures market of various commodities has different price fluctuations and trading suggestions [21][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro - indicators: On April 18, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index decreased by 1.329%, the Nasdaq Index decreased by 0.127%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.133%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.606%, SHIBOR overnight decreased by 4.333%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.054%, and the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - International Futures Contracts: COMEX gold decreased by 0.488%, COMEX silver decreased by 0.656%, LME copper increased by 0.549%, etc. [2]. - Domestic Futures Contracts: In the metal sector, gold decreased by 0.261%, silver decreased by 0.086%, etc.; in the chemical sector, coking coal decreased by 0.947%, coke decreased by 0.292%, etc.; in the agricultural product sector, yellow soybean No.1 decreased by 0.888%, yellow soybean No.2 increased by 0.145%, etc. [2][4]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - China and Cambodia agreed to build a new - era all - weather community with a shared future and announced 2025 as the "China - Cambodia Tourism Year" [7]. - China welcomes more US companies to invest in the Chinese market, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce is open to economic and trade consultations with the US and willing to cooperate with the EU to maintain the multilateral trading system [7][8]. - The Chinese government carried out various works, such as the application for pilot cities of the modern commercial circulation system, promoting the high - quality development of the private economy, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis services in high - energy - consuming industries [8][9]. - China's first - quarter financial GDP increased by 3.8% year - on - year, and real - estate GDP increased by 1% year - on - year. In March, the unemployment rates of different age groups were announced [8]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The spot market is stable with increased supply. In the delivery game stage, focus on delivery costs and receiving willingness, and consider long - short spreads and rebound short - selling [12]. - Oils and Fats: Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 16.95% from April 1 - 15 compared to the same period last month, and Brazil's April soybean export forecast was raised. The market is lightly traded, and palm oil imports are still at a loss. Suggest buying on dips [12]. - Sugar: On April 17, the sugar futures price increased by 1.04%. India's sugar production decreased by 18.4%. After breaking through the key resistance level, beware of the risk of Brazil's increased production. Consider light - position long - buying if it stabilizes above 5900 yuan/ton [12]. - Corn: On April 17, the corn futures price slightly decreased. Port inventories are at a historical high, but state - owned grain reserves' purchases and expected import decline support the market. Consider short - selling on rebounds, but beware of policy - supported rebounds [12]. - Pigs: The national pig price is stable. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and the futures market is in a multi - empty game. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Eggs: The spot price is stable with a slight increase. Supply pressure exists, and the futures price rebounds but has limited upside. Consider short - selling on rebounds [12][13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemical - Caustic Soda: The inventory of caustic soda decreased significantly. The 2505 contract continued to rebound from a low level, and the 2509 contract awaited new market drivers [15]. - Urea: The domestic urea price continued to decline slightly. Supply remained high, demand support weakened, and the short - term market might continue to fluctuate weakly [15]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The prices of copper and aluminum continued to consolidate. Copper inventories decreased for seven consecutive weeks, and aluminum rod inventories decreased. Pay attention to policy changes [17][18]. - Alumina: The supply - demand fundamentals of alumina remained in surplus, and a bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased at night. The market had no significant inventory pressure, and prices were expected to fluctuate at low levels. Pay attention to export orders from April to May [18]. - Ferroalloys: Manganese ore prices continued to decline, and the supply - demand of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese was loose. They continued to fluctuate weakly [18]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market was weak, and the coke market was stable after a price increase. They were expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate weakly. Supply and demand both increased, but inventory pressure intensified. A rebound short - selling strategy was recommended [19]. 3.3.4 Option - Finance - A - shares: On April 17, the three major A - share indices had mixed performance. The real - estate and consumer sectors were active. The market was affected by US tariff policies, and it was recommended to reduce positions on rallies and use arbitrage strategies [21][22][23]. - Options and Futures: On April 17, the trading volume and implied volatility of various stock index futures and options had different changes. Trend investors were advised to defend, and volatility investors could consider buying straddles [23].