华金期货黑色原料周报-20250418

Report Information - Report Title: Huajin Futures Black Raw Materials Weekly Report - Report Date: April 18, 2025 - Research Institute: Huajin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Viewpoints Iron Ore - Overseas shipments are generally at normal levels,非主流 shipments are declining, and domestic iron concentrate production is stable. Steel mill profits are good, and hot metal production is expected to remain high. Port inventories are gradually decreasing, and there is a short - term upward impulse before the holiday, but medium - term pressure remains [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - Mongolian coal customs - clearance vehicle numbers are stable, with obvious supply surplus. Coke prices have increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, but coking profits are still negative. Futures and spot prices lack continuous rebound momentum, and attention should be paid to the possibility of supply reduction [45]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Overseas Supply - Australian and Brazilian shipments are at normal levels, with a decline of 41.8 tons to 2434.8 tons this period. Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, dropping 56 tons to about 472.9 tons this week. Second - quarter arrivals are expected to be at an average level [6]. Four Major Mines' Shipments - Fortescue's Q4 2024 iron ore shipments reached 48.9 million tons, a 3.56% quarter - on - quarter increase, with a 2025 fiscal year shipment target of 190 - 200 million tons. Vale's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 67.66 million tons, a 4.5% year - on - year decrease, and the annual production target remains at 325 - 335 million tons. Rio Tinto's Q1 2025 iron ore production was 69.77 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease, and the annual shipment target remains at 323 - 338 million tons. BHP's FY25 Q3 Pilbara iron ore production was 67.8 million tons, unchanged year - on - year, and the 2025 fiscal year target remains at 282 - 294 million tons [16]. Demand - This week, hot metal production remained stable at about 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 0.10 tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio declined, and the port clearance volume remained high, with downstream replenishment on demand [21]. Inventory - Sinter powder inventories are at normal levels, and port total inventories decreased by 2.8502 million tons to 140.56 million tons this week. Steel mill imported sinter powder inventories increased by 0.1831 million tons to 12.6678 million tons [27][30]. Futures and Spot Structure - Futures and spot prices are in a low - level shock, with far - month prices at a large discount to spot prices, indicating weak expected demand. Before May Day, the pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness is expected to continue [33]. Relationship with Foreign Exchange - The US is expected to enter a recession, CPI is generally falling, and tariff issues are causing market sentiment fluctuations. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates soon, and the US dollar index is under continuous downward pressure [40]. Relationship with Non - Mainstream Region Shipments - Non - Australian and Brazilian shipments are continuously decreasing, and there is a certain relationship between them and iron ore prices [44]. Coking Coal and Coke Coking Coal Demand and Coke Supply - Hot metal production is expected to remain high. Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time this week, and there is an expectation of a second increase next week, with coke profits recovering [51]. Coking Coal Inventory - Independent coking plant coking coal inventories increased by 0.1044 million tons to 9.7613 million tons, and steel mill coking coal inventories increased by 0.046 million tons to about 7.8423 million tons. Port imported coking coal inventories decreased by 0.1154 million tons to 3.3738 million tons, and mine clean coal inventories are at a high level [54][59]. Coking Coal Term Structure - Due to obvious supply surplus, all contracts are continuously falling, and downstream purchasing willingness is poor, with no obvious inflection point in the short term [63]. Coke Inventory - Coke prices increased by 50 yuan/ton for the first time, with negative but recovering profits. Independent coking plant production is at a low level, inventories are decreasing, and port inventories have reached a high level for the same period [66]. Coke Term Structure - Coke futures prices are continuously falling, spot prices are in a low - level shock. There are rumors of further price increases, the basis has narrowed, but it still shows a premium structure [75].