特朗普与美联储博弈，A股缩量维持存量博弈

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The data indicates a marginal decline in the US real estate and manufacturing sectors. The Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's interest rate cut have affected the overnight performance of various assets. The lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates will increase asset price volatility. The statements from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May and the Politburo meeting at the end of April are important observation windows. The A-share market is in a process of strong government support and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, but the potential negative impact of the earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. The sustainability of this rebound is uncertain, and it is expected that the stock index will have a process of retesting the bottom in the short term [2][3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US new housing starts in March were 1.324 million units, lower than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. Building permits in March were 1.482 million units, higher than the expected 1.446 million and the previous value of 1.459 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in April was - 26.4, lower than the expected 2 and the previous value of 12.5. Fed officials continue to send hawkish signals, while the ECB cut interest rates by 25BP yesterday. Overnight, the US dollar index rebounded, US bond yields rose, gold fell, the Dow and Nasdaq declined, the S&P 500 rose, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell, and the offshore RMB exchange rate fluctuated [2][7]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Thursday, the market continued its previous rhythm. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.09%. The index was relatively stable, but individual stock sentiment was average. The "national team" played a significant role in the eight - consecutive - day rise of the market, but the market volume shrank, indicating that off - market funds are hesitant. The real estate, building materials, social services, and light manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the automotive, non - ferrous metals, communications, and beauty care sectors led the losses. There were 3,125 rising stocks and 2,035 falling stocks in the whole market [3][8]. 1.3 Important News - Trump criticized Powell and called for interest rate cuts. There are differences within the US regarding Powell's dismissal. Trump expressed confidence in reaching a trade agreement with the EU and satisfaction with the progress of negotiations with Japan. He also mentioned the signing of a Ukraine mineral agreement. Fed's Williams believes that the current monetary policy is in a good position and there is no need for a quick adjustment. There were also a series of domestic and international events, including China - Cambodia cooperation, government policy - related statements, and China's stance on trade issues at the G20 meeting [9][10][11]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - Due to the lack of progress in Trump's tariff policy and the game between Trump and the Fed, external asset volatility has increased. The statement from the Fed's FOMC meeting in early May is an important observation window. The A - share market is in a process of government rescue and market expectation of macro - policy hedging, with the Politburo meeting at the end of April as an observation window. The potential negative impact of earnings reports in mid - to late April is suppressing market risk appetite. It is expected that the stock index will retest the bottom in the short term, and the increase in trading volume in the Shenzhen market is a sign of improvement. The strategy is to go long on the CSI 300 and short on the CSI 1000 in arbitrage, and gradually close positions according to market conditions during the index's retracement. For long - only positions, be stable and operate in a rolling manner without chasing the rise [3][12]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report provides detailed data on the performance, trading volume, and open interest of various stock index futures contracts, including the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. It also shows changes in trading volume, trading value, open interest, and net positions [14][15]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report presents the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes in major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as the trading volume and valuation information. It also analyzes the impact of different market styles (cyclical, consumer, growth, financial, and stable) on the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [35][36][37]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - There are charts showing the central bank's open - market operations and the Shibor interest rate levels, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [55].