软商品日报-20250418

Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a tendency towards a certain direction but with low operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, representing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Apple: ななな, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Log: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and waiting and seeing [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - 20 -号 Rubber: ななな, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] Core Views - The overall market shows different trends in various commodities. For most commodities, the reports suggest a wait - and - see approach due to factors such as uncertain supply and demand, macro - economic impacts, and trade risks [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures slightly declined today, with sluggish domestic spot trading and poor performance in the textile enterprise market. Domestic retail data is fair, but external demand faces challenges. Due to trade risks, the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [2] Sugar - The market's focus has shifted to the 25/26 sugar - cane season. There are potential positive factors in supply and demand, leading to a continuous rebound in Zhengzhou sugar. However, with a downward trend in US sugar and sufficient domestic supply, the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price first rose and then fell. The impact of the cold wave on apples is estimated to be small, but the actual output needs further observation. Spot prices are stable, sales are good, and inventory is low. The market's focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 -号 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - The market shows different trends for different types of rubber. Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is decreasing. Market sentiment is cautious, and it is recommended to wait and see and hold cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp prices rose slightly today but showed a weak and volatile trend this week. Domestic port inventory is high, demand is average, and the short - term trend is greatly affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price is running weakly. Although inventory has decreased, demand is weak, and it is expected that the futures price will continue to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]