Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★☆★ [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectation, with supply expected to rise significantly, which is bearish for the future market, but low inventories in the inland and coastal areas still support the market to some extent [2] - Urea's supply is at a high level, and the concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] - Polyolefin futures prices continue to decline, with high supply pressure in the polyethylene market and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] - Styrene has an expectation of increased supply and weakened demand, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] - In the polyester industry, PTA's supply and demand are expected to decrease, and the impact of production cuts is limited; ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline; short fiber fluctuates with raw materials; bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] - PVC may fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for caustic soda [8] - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited; soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9] Commodity Summaries Methanol - Inland production enterprises have low inventories, and the recent inland market remains strong. However, after Iran's full复产, the arrival speed of ships has rebounded rapidly, and the import volume in coastal areas is expected to gradually return at the end of this month. The high supply expectation is bearish for the future market, but low inventories still support the market [2] Urea - The futures price rebounds slightly. Supply is at a high level, and demand is affected by the season. The concentrated start of demand at the end of April or early May may drive the market to stabilize and rebound [3] Polyolefins - Futures prices decline. Polyethylene has high supply pressure and weak demand, while polypropylene has less supply pressure but weak demand [4] Styrene - The futures price consolidates narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, demand continues to weaken, and the overall demand outlook is gloomy [6] Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate, and the impact of PTA production cuts is limited. Ethylene glycol's supply and demand are both expected to decline. Short fiber fluctuates with raw materials, and bottle chip's supply and demand are weak [7] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate at a low level. Caustic soda production may be at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures prices decline, and the decline space is expected to be limited. Soda ash futures prices continue to fall, and it is not recommended to go long [9]
化工日报-20250418
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-04-18 11:08