钢材出口预期不佳，矿价再次转弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view: The impact of tariffs on global commodity demand and domestic steel exports remains highly uncertain, but iron ore prices have already reflected a rather pessimistic outlook. The 09 contract dropped to a minimum of 670.5 yuan/ton last week, corresponding to a US dollar index of around 85, indicating an annual iron ore surplus of about 30 million tons. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand balance of iron ore won't be very loose, with a slight inventory build - up at ports expected according to the balance sheet. With the expectation of tariff relaxation and domestic policy support, iron ore prices are expected to gradually bottom out and rebound [7]. - This week's price trend: Iron ore prices rose first and then fell this week, mainly driven by finished steel. Given the weak export outlook and the potential short - term peak in domestic demand, the market is trading on the logic of macro - expectations and fundamental production cuts [7]. - This week's view: Vale and Rio Tinto released their quarterly production and sales reports, showing a year - on - year decline in Q1 production with no change in production targets. Recently, shipments from non - mainstream mines have decreased. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable. Against the backdrop of a high basis and pre - holiday steel mill restocking, it is suitable for long positions. However, the pressure on single - sided positions lies in finished steel. Although the inventory reduction speed of rebar and hot - rolled coils is good this period, market concerns about exports are still obvious due to tariff frictions. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Tariff impact on demand and exports is uncertain, but iron ore prices reflected pessimism. The 09 contract hit a low, suggesting an annual surplus. First - half supply - demand is not overly loose, and prices may rebound with tariff and policy expectations [7]. - This week's price movement: Prices fluctuated due to finished steel, and the market traded on macro and production - cut logics [7]. - This week's view: Quarterly reports showed production decline, non - mainstream shipments decreased. Short - term fundamentals are okay, suitable for long positions with basis and restocking factors. Single - sided pressure comes from finished steel, and an arbitrage strategy is recommended [7]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights 3.2.1 Shipment - The total global iron ore shipment this period was 29.077 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,200 tons. Australian shipments increased slightly, Brazilian shipments decreased slightly, and non - mainstream country shipments decreased significantly. The total shipment from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons, and then increased by 418,000 tons in another comparison. Australian shipments were 17.063 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 471,000 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 232,000 tons. Brazilian shipments were 7.285 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,000 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 25.255 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.368 million tons [10]. 3.2.2 Demand - The daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons. The resumption speed of steel mills has slowed down, and the first - half peak of pig iron output may be around 2.43 million tons. Steel apparent demand continued to increase, and the inventory reduction speed was acceptable. However, seasonally, the demand peak is likely to occur from late April to early May, and the future steel export outlook is poor, so iron ore demand faces downward pressure [13]. 3.2.3 Port Inventory - The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.0951 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,400 tons. The port inventory was 140.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8502 million tons, indicating continued inventory reduction. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 90.5292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 242,100 tons [16]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts 3.3.1 Spot Price and Basis - Data shows the prices and price changes of Qingdao Port PB powder, Super Special powder, and the basis over several days in April 2025 [21]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread - Multiple charts show the price differences between different iron ore varieties such as PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba powder, PB lump, etc. over the years from 2021 - 2025 [24][25][27]. 3.3.5 Pig Iron Output - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills and daily average pig iron output data are presented, showing changes over time. For example, on April 18, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.4012 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.04% [36].