一周简评：板块及品种

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The current market has strong reality and weak expectations. The prices of futures contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with no driving force for a trending rise or fall for now. The recommended strategy is to wait for the right opportunity [1] Summary by Directory Black Sector - Market Situation: The current market has strong reality and weak expectations. This week, rebar production decreased while hot-rolled coil production increased. Both rebar and hot-rolled coils saw inventory reduction and an increase in apparent demand, showing characteristics of peak-season demand. Due to the decline in raw material prices, blast furnace profits are higher than electric arc furnace profits, and electric arc furnaces are experiencing significant losses [1] - Expectations: The impact of tariffs on export and entrepot trade needs further observation, and currently, no obvious impact has been seen. Whether the Politburo meeting at the end of April will introduce favorable policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts remains uncertain [1] - Price Trend: It is expected that futures prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, with no driving force for a trending rise or fall for now [1] - Trading Strategy: Wait for the right opportunity [1] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Market Review: This week, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils continued to decline. On Friday, the main rebar 2510 contract closed at 3076, a weekly decline of 1.76% based on the closing price. The second main 2505 contract closed at 3003, a decline of 1.54%. The main hot-rolled coil 2510 contract closed at 3181, a decline of 0.66% based on the closing price. The second main 2505 contract closed at 3162, a decline of 0.60% [1] - Important Information: In Q1 2025, China's imports and exports of mechanical and electrical products were 5.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. In March 2025, China exported 1360000 machine tools, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. In Q1 2025, the cumulative export of machine tools was 3990000, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. In March 2025, China exported 13370 tractors, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In Q1 2025, the cumulative export of tractors was 40916, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. In March 2025, China exported 570000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 1540000, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. In March 2025, China exported 8150000 air conditioners, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 22200000, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%. In March 2025, the export of refrigerators was 7310000, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 19880000, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. In March 2025, the export of washing machines was 2820000, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 8270000, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In March 2025, the export of LCD TVs was 8400000, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%; from January to March, the cumulative export was 23490000, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [1] - Market Logic: The current market has strong reality and weak expectations. This week, rebar production decreased while hot-rolled coil production increased. Both rebar and hot-rolled coils saw inventory reduction and an increase in apparent demand, showing characteristics of peak-season demand. Due to the decline in raw material prices, blast furnace profits are higher than electric arc furnace profits, and electric arc furnaces are experiencing significant losses. The impact of tariffs on export and entrepot trade needs further observation, and currently, no obvious impact has been seen. Whether the Politburo meeting at the end of April will introduce favorable policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts remains uncertain. Overall, it is expected that futures prices will continue to fluctuate within a range, with no driving force for a trending rise or fall for now [1] - Trading Strategy: Wait for the right opportunity [1]