Huachuang Securities·2025-04-19 07:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [30]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume growth rate of 20.3% in March, with SF Express showing the highest growth rate at 25.4% [5][8]. - The total business volume for the first three months reached 451.4 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [5]. - The industry revenue for March was 124.6 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year, while the cumulative revenue for the first three months was 345.64 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9% [5][8]. - The average revenue per piece in March was 7.48 yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative average of 7.66 yuan, down 8.8% [5][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the express delivery industry is 311.276 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 301.749 billion yuan [4]. - The industry has a concentration ratio (CR8) of 86.9%, indicating a high level of market concentration [8]. Company Performance - In March, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: SF Express (25.4%), YTO Express (22.5%), Shentong Express (20.1%), and Yunda Express (17.3%) [5][8]. - For the first three months, Shentong Express led with a cumulative growth rate of 26.6%, followed by Yunda Express (22.9%) and YTO Express (21.7%) [5]. - Revenue growth rates in March were led by Shentong Express (14.7%), YTO Express (13.4%), and SF Express (10.6%) [5][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a full-year business volume growth rate of 21% for 2024, supported by strong demand resilience [5]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the competitive pricing strategies of leading companies, as the industry trends towards "anti-involution," which is expected to benefit the performance elasticity of express delivery companies in the medium to long term [5].