3月财政数据点评：财政提速加码，蓄势待发

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first three months of 2025, national general public budget revenue was 6.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[5] - National general public budget expenditure reached 7.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.2% year-on-year, expanding by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[5] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue was 27.4%, higher than the same period in 2024 but lower than the five-year average of 28%[6] Group 2: Taxation Insights - Personal income tax growth slowed to 7.1%, contributing 0.5 percentage points to fiscal revenue, while corporate income tax fell by 6.8%, dragging down revenue by 1.3 percentage points[6] - Domestic value-added tax increased by 2.1%, indicating some recovery in corporate operations, while domestic consumption tax rose by 2.2%[6] - The combined decline in real estate-related taxes narrowed to 6.9%, suggesting a potential stabilization in the real estate sector[6] Group 3: Government Fund and Debt Management - Government fund income was 0.9 trillion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, with land transfer income decreasing by 15.9%[5] - Government fund expenditure increased by 11% year-on-year to 2.0 trillion yuan, driven by a higher issuance of special bonds compared to the previous year[5] - The issuance of government bonds is expected to peak in the second and third quarters, providing strong support for fiscal expenditure and economic operation[6] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - Fiscal policy tools are categorized into "accelerating stock, adjusting structure, and reserving increment," focusing on enhancing public welfare and stimulating consumption[5] - Risks include slower-than-expected recovery in real estate, discrepancies between actual execution and initial budget, and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies[5]