Soochow Securities·2025-04-19 13:09Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [77]. Core Views - March sales show resilience in domestic demand, while exports perform better than expected [9][11]. - The overall industry volume in March meets expectations, with exports exceeding forecasts [11][20]. - The market structure indicates a decline in the market share of Weichai, maintaining its leading position [12][39]. Summary by Sections Sales Tracking - In March, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 111,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -3.7% and +37%, respectively [8]. - Terminal sales for March were 72,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -4.4% and +49.1%, respectively [8]. - Export sales in March were 28,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of +12.3% and +22.7%, respectively [8]. - The total industry inventory increased by 12,000 units, with the current total inventory at 161,000 units [8]. Market Structure Tracking - In March, the market share for terminal sales among major manufacturers was as follows: Jiefang 21.3%, Dongfeng 21.4%, Heavy Truck 18.1%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 12.8%, and Foton 10.3% [10]. - For exports, the market share was: Jiefang 18.5%, Dongfeng 9.4%, Heavy Truck 41.6%, Shaanxi Heavy Truck 16.3%, and Foton 9.4% [10][50]. Profitability Tracking - The heavy truck production volume in March was 116,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month changes of -0.4% and +33.7%, respectively [11]. - The structure of the industry shows a significant increase in new energy heavy trucks, with sales of 14,000 units in March, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 183% [11]. - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks reached 19.9%, an increase of 13.2 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Engine Market Structure - In March, the market share for engines was as follows: Weichai 24.1%, Cummins 16.2%, Xichai 14.3%, Heavy Truck 8.4%, and Yuchai 14.5% [12][59]. - Weichai's terminal matching volume was 17,000 units, with year-on-year changes of -38.1% and +26.7% [65]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, highlighting the performance improvement potential of Jiefang and Foton [12][72].