每周高频跟踪：基建弹性继续释放-20250419

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third week of April, real estate sales rebounded after a decline at the beginning of the month. New home sales were still weaker than the same period, while second - hand home sales showed an expanding year - on - year increase and remained resilient. Tariffs began to affect the transportation demand of Sino - US routes and the industrial production rhythm. Food prices changed from rising to falling due to the drop in vegetable prices. The SCFI index continued to decline month - on - month, with the cargo volume of Sino - US routes decreasing and the freight rate of the US - West route dragging down the overall index. In the industrial sector, the impact of tariffs on exports and industrial production was evident, while investment demand remained strong. In the investment field, the demand and price of cement and rebar continued to improve, supported by key infrastructure projects. Real estate transactions showed a seasonal increase, but new home sales were still negative year - on - year. [4][40] - For the bond market, although the economic data in the first quarter showed a "good start" and many sub - items exceeded expectations, the short - term bond market focused on the second - quarter fundamental month - on - month pricing, as well as the rhythm and space of subsequent incremental policies. The impact of tariffs on exports and industry had emerged in April's high - frequency data, which might be reflected in foreign trade and economic data later. On the other hand, the domestic fiscal policy was implemented ahead of schedule, and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds was advanced. High - frequency data of investment products indicated that the physical workload of infrastructure investment was accelerating. The counter - cyclical adjustment policies in the second quarter would be implemented more quickly. The bond market entered a new policy effect observation period, and attention should be paid to high - frequency economic data verification, marginal changes, and the statements of the Politburo meeting in April regarding boosting consumption, the equity market, and the real estate market. [4] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs (1) Inflation - related: Food prices changed from rising to falling - The average wholesale price of national pork increased by 0.14% month - on - month. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.56% and 0.64% respectively month - on - month, mainly due to a 3.8% month - on - month decline in vegetable prices. [9] (2) Import and export - related: The cargo volume of Sino - US routes continued to decline - The export container shipping market was basically stable. The SCFI index decreased slightly, and the cargo volume of Sino - US routes declined further. The CCFI index increased by 0.3% month - on - month, while the SCFI index decreased by 1.7% month - on - month. The market began to adjust the overall shipping capacity, and the freight rate of the US - West route decreased slightly. [10] - The decline of dry - bulk freight rates narrowed but continued to fall. The BDI index decreased by 3.6% month - on - month on average, and the CDFI index decreased by 3.0% month - on - month. The international dry - bulk shipping market was relatively stable, but the freight rate was under pressure due to the large available shipping capacity in the two - ocean market of cape - size ships. [10] (3) Industry - related: Export disturbances emerged, and investment demand remained strong - The price of thermal coal decreased slightly. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. Due to the rise in temperature, residential electricity consumption decreased, and the electricity consumption of non - power industries was affected by some export - manufacturing enterprises cutting production, resulting in a weakening of the electricity demand. The coal price continued to decline due to stable supply and weak demand. [13] - The price of rebar stopped falling and stabilized. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) decreased by 0.01% month - on - month. The steel market saw an increase in both supply and demand, and inventory continued to decline. However, due to weak domestic real estate investment demand and weak export expectations, the short - term rebar price continued to fluctuate slightly. The blast furnace operating rate was 90.1%, slightly lower than the previous week, and the apparent demand for rebar was 276.7 tons, a 9.4% month - on - month increase, indicating strong investment and construction sentiment. [17] - The copper price stopped falling and rebounded. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 3.1% and 2.7% respectively month - on - month. The market sentiment improved due to the Trump administration's exemption of some electronic products from 125% reciprocal tariffs, and the domestic refined copper inventory continued to decline. However, due to high macro - uncertainty, the copper price rebound was highly volatile. [22] - The glass market adjusted slightly and remained stable overall. Some glass manufacturers promoted sales by raising prices, which stimulated the purchasing sentiment of downstream demand. However, the prices in some regions were under pressure. The glass inventory continued to decline, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, lacking incremental stimulation factors. [22] (4) Investment - related: Real estate transactions increased seasonally, but new home sales were still weaker than the same period - The decline of cement prices widened. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.67% month - on - month. From April 9th to 15th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 4.78% month - on - month but decreased by 27.55% year - on - year. The demand in the East China region was weak due to the sluggish real estate market and slow infrastructure investment, while the demand in North, Southwest, and Northwest China was supported by key projects and infrastructure construction. [23] - The transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased month - on - month after stopping the decline. From April 11th to 17th, the transaction area was 142.4 million square meters, a 16% month - on - month increase but a 22% year - on - year decrease, still weaker than in 2023 and 2024. [28] - Second - hand home sales entered a sprint stage in the second half of the month. From April 11th to 17th, the transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities was 288.8 million square meters, a 23.4% month - on - month increase and a 15.8% year - on - year increase, showing improvement compared with the previous week. Second - hand home sales usually increase seasonally from mid - April to the end of the month, and attention should be paid to the rebound slope. [31] (5) Consumption: The year - on - year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded in the first two weeks of April - From April 1st to 13th, passenger car retail sales increased by 8% year - on - year, a 14% month - on - month decrease compared with the previous month, the same as the decline in the previous week. The momentum of automobile consumption continued to weaken. [37] - Crude oil prices rebounded. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 4.9% and 5.2% respectively compared with the previous Friday. US sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the OPEC+ production - cut plan supported the strong rebound of oil prices, and the market's expectation of tightened crude oil supply strengthened, which might continue to support oil prices in the short term. [37]