Xinda Securities·2025-04-20 00:40Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry experienced a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 21.6% in Q1 2025, driven by a 5.7% growth in online retail sales [3][14] - SF Express led the growth in business volume in March 2025, achieving a growth rate of 25.4%, outperforming its competitors [4][32] - The average price per package in the industry faced downward pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 8.8% in Q1 2025 [5][22] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In Q1 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 451.4 billion pieces, with March alone accounting for approximately 166.6 billion pieces, reflecting a 20.3% year-on-year increase [3][14] - The average price per package in the express delivery sector was 7.66 yuan, down 8.8% year-on-year [5][22] Company Performance - In March 2025, the express delivery volumes for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at 26.65 billion pieces, Yunda at 22.53 billion pieces, Shentong at 20.85 billion pieces, and SF Express at 12.95 billion pieces [4][32] - For Q1 2025, the cumulative express delivery volumes were: YTO Express at 67.79 billion pieces, Yunda at 60.76 billion pieces, Shentong at 58.07 billion pieces, and SF Express at 35.41 billion pieces [4][32] Market Share - In Q1 2025, the market share of express delivery companies was as follows: YTO Express at 15.0%, Yunda at 13.5%, Shentong at 12.9%, and SF Express at 7.8% [4][32] Price Trends - The average price per package for SF Express in March was 13.82 yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year, while YTO Express, Yunda, and Shentong had average prices of 2.18 yuan, 1.96 yuan, and 2.01 yuan respectively [5][33] Future Outlook - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain growth, with a projected increase in business volume of 10-15% for 2025, driven by the expansion of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors [6][46] - The competitive landscape may see a resurgence in price competition as leading companies focus on market share and service quality [7][46] Investment Recommendations - For franchise-based companies, it is suggested to focus on YTO Express, Yunda, and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Shentong [8][47] - For direct-operated companies, SF Express is recommended due to its potential for operational and cash flow improvements [8][47]