白糖周报：远期基本面承压，郑糖涨幅有限-20250420

Report Title - "Long - Term Fundamentals Under Pressure, Limited Upside for Zhengzhou Sugar Futures - Guoxin Futures' Weekly Sugar Report", dated April 20, 2025 [2] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, short - term new supply of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but there is pressure for a supply increase in the medium term, and weather risks remain. It is expected to fluctuate between 5850 - 6100 yuan/ton. Internationally, short - term raw sugar is expected to oscillate at a low level [59] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis - Futures Price Trends: Zhengzhou sugar futures had a narrow - range fluctuation this week with a weekly increase of 0.15%. ICE sugar futures had a weak oscillation with a weekly decline of 0.34% [11] - Spot Price and Basis Trends: Not elaborated in the provided content - National Production and Sales Situation: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in March was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year [20] - Sugar Import Situation: From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a decrease of 1.11 million tons compared to the same period last year. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents/pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5188 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 6615 yuan/ton; from Thailand, the in - quota cost was 5268 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota cost was 6719 yuan/ton [25] - Domestic Industrial Inventory: In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory in March was 4.7521 million tons, a decrease of 86,500 tons compared to the same period last year [28] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts: This week, the total of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 28,776, an increase of 0 compared to last week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecasts were 1366 [36] - Brazilian Production Progress: In the second half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.98%, and sugar production was 40.169 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.31% [40] - Brazilian Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio: The cumulative sugar - making ratio from sugarcane in central and southern Brazil was 48.05%, compared to 48.87% in the same period last year [43] - Brazilian Monthly Sugar Exports: In March, Brazil's sugar export volume was 1.8512 million tons, a decrease of 868,000 tons compared to the same period last year. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 35.1296 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 390 tons [47] - International Main Production Area Weather Conditions: Rainfall decreased in Brazil's main production areas, and the production progress was faster than the same period. Precipitation in India changed little [55][56] 3.2 Market Outlook for the Future - Domestic Market: This week, the impact of the macro - aspect dissipated, and the market gradually shifted to fundamentals. The industrial inventory started to decline month - on - month in March, indicating that the domestic inventory peak has passed. The drought in Guangxi has intensified, raising concerns about the emergence of new - season sugarcane seedlings. If the drought persists, ratoon cane may also be affected, posing a significant threat to next - year's production. In terms of later supply, an import window has emerged, and it is highly likely that imports will surge in May [59] - International Market: The production report of southern Brazil for the second half of March had a negative impact on the market. The sugar - making ratio was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and also higher than market expectations. From the perspective of the sugar - alcohol ratio, sugar production is very attractive, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. In terms of weather, the decrease in rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for the sugar - cane crushing season. It is expected that the supply data will still show a large year - on - year increase, continuously putting pressure on the market. As of April 15, 2025, India had cumulatively crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane, producing 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills had not finished crushing, having cumulatively crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. There is a certain probability that this year's production will be less than 26 million tons [59]