棉花周报：宏观变动脱敏，郑棉转为震荡-20250420

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Macro Changes Desensitized, Zhengzhou Cotton Turns to Fluctuation - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: April 20, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices fell slightly this week, with a weekly decline of 0.66%. ICE cotton futures turned to a fluctuating trend, with a weekly increase of 0.15% [8] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index continued to decline. The 3128 index dropped by 59 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index decreased by 66 yuan/ton [12] Import Situation - In March, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year-on-year increase of 30,000 tons [17] Inventory Situation - In March, the commercial cotton inventory was 4.8396 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19,800 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 959,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 59,600 tons [22] Downstream Inventory - In March, the yarn inventory was 19.15 days, a year-on-year decrease of 4 days. The grey fabric inventory was 28.7 days, a year-on-year increase of 0.05 days [27] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices dropped significantly. The price of rotor-spun 10-count cotton yarn decreased by 20 yuan/ton compared to last week, the price of carded 32-count cotton yarn fell by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of combed 40-count cotton yarn declined by 30 yuan/ton [32] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts decreased by 84. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,833, and the valid forecasts were 2,828, totaling 12,661 [36] US Cotton Exports - As of April 10, according to the USDA weekly export sales report, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 202,000 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 66,000 bales [40][41] US Weather - The drought index in the main cotton-producing areas of the US remained basically the same month-on-month, with a slight increase in drought in Texas [45] Group 3: Core Views - Domestic market: This week, the Zhengzhou cotton market turned to a slight fluctuation and became desensitized to macro events. The market lacks upward momentum, but there is strong support at the 12,000 yuan/ton level. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and wait for new catalysts [45] - International market: The bottom support for US cotton is emerging. However, there is currently a lack of strong factors to drive it higher. Continued attention should be paid to macro changes [45]