GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-04-20 03:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the coal mining sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [3][6]. Core Insights - Indonesia's new regulations have increased the coal export mining rights tax rate by 1%, which is expected to impact miners' profitability. The tax rate will vary based on calorific value and mining method, with higher rates applicable when the coal reference price exceeds $90 per ton [2][3]. - The report highlights that Indonesia's non-tax state revenue from the mining and coal sector is projected to reach 140.5 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately $8.33 billion) in 2024, accounting for 52.1% of the country's non-tax revenue [2]. - The report suggests that some miners may shift towards domestic supply to mitigate tax pressure, although the domestic market's absorption capacity remains uncertain, potentially leading to production cuts and capacity constraints [2]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report notes fluctuations in global energy prices, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 7.31% to $67.96 per barrel and WTI crude oil futures increasing by 7.67% to $64.68 per barrel [1]. - Coal prices showed mixed trends, with Newcastle coal (6000K) FOB price at $95.1 per ton (up 0.2%), while European ARA coal price decreased by 0.7% to $99.9 per ton [1][34]. Key Companies - The report identifies key investment targets in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating strong growth potential [6]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their stock repurchase plans, indicating confidence in their future performance [3]. Market Trends - The report provides a graphical representation of coal mining sector trends, indicating a potential recovery in the market after recent declines [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices and regulatory changes in Indonesia, which could significantly impact the sector's dynamics [2][3].