Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-04-20 04:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - After a decline, copper prices may experience fluctuations, awaiting further macroeconomic catalysts. The rebound in copper prices is limited by the impact of tariffs on demand and expectations of a recession in the U.S. [5][6] - The aluminum market shows signs of bottom support with domestic inventory decreasing, while lithium prices continue to decline due to an oversupply situation [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important Information: U.S. retail sales for March exceeded expectations, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4% [9] - Market Performance: The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.91% compared to the index's 1.19% [13][14] - Valuation Changes: The PE_TTM for the non-ferrous metals sector is 19.17, with a decrease of 0.44, while the PB_LF is 2.08, down by 0.04 [22][25] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: Copper prices fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.29% and SHFE copper up 1.21%. The copper smelting profit was -2261 CNY/ton, indicating an expanded loss [27] - Aluminum: LME aluminum decreased by 1.58%, while SHFE aluminum increased by 0.13%. The aluminum smelting profit rose to 3970 CNY/ton, up 8.78% [36] - Lead and Zinc: Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices fell. The smelting profit for zinc was -78 CNY/ton, indicating a loss [51][52] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: Lithium prices continue to decline, with carbonate lithium down 0.21% to 71450 CNY/ton. The market remains oversupplied [78] - Cobalt: Domestic cobalt prices increased by 5.22% to 242000 CNY/ton, with domestic smelting profits rising by 41.71% to 40800 CNY/ton [88]